POLI: An Expert System Model of U.S. Foreign Policy Belief Systems

外交政策决定在很大程度上受到决策者所能获得的信息的性质以及分析和处理信息的方式的影响。以往研究的悠久传统表明，决策者感知和回应信息的方式在很大程度上取决于他们先前的信念。然而，到目前为止，这些信念的复杂性使得它们很难使用标准的经验方法进行系统研究。该项目使用包括专家系统技术在内的计算建模技术，更系统地检查复杂的信念系统对外交政策信息处理的影响。具体地说，这项研究继续开发美国在亚洲制定外交政策的大型专家系统模型，称为POLI。之前对该模式的研究主要集中在20世纪50年代，事实证明，在那个十年里，在复制美国对亚洲的反应方面非常成功。该项目将试图通过将其对亚洲外交政策的分析从1960年延伸到现在来验证和完善该模型。当这个项目完成后，不仅应该更好地了解美国外交政策的制定过程，而且应该提供一个强大的工具，供政策制定者用来改进决策。

Foreign policy decisions are influenced to a considerable extent by the nature of the information available to the decision maker and by the way that information is analyzed and processed. A long tradition of previous research demonstrates that the way decisions makers perceive and respond to information depends significantly on their prior beliefs. To date, however, the complexity of these beliefs has made them very difficult to study systematically using standard empirical methods. This project uses computational modeling techniques, including expert system technology, to more systematically examine the impact of complex belief systems on the processing of foreign policy information. Specifically, this research continues development of a large expert system model, called POLI, of U.S. foreign policy making in Asia. Prior work with this model has focussed on the 1950s and has proven highly successful in reproducing U.S. responses to Asia during that decade. This project will attempt to validate and refine the model by extending its analysis of foreign policy in Asia from 1960 through the present. When completed this project not only should provide a better understanding of the processes through which U.S. foreign policy is made but should provide a powerful tool that can be used by policy makers to improve decision making.