POLI: An Expert System Model of U.S. Foreign Policy Belief Systems

外交决策在相当大程度上受到影响 根据决策者可获得的信息的性质， 以及信息被分析和处理的方式。 很长 以往的研究传统表明， 决策者对信息的感知和反应在很大程度上取决于 他们先前的信仰。 然而，到目前为止， 信仰使他们很难系统地研究， 标准经验方法。 该项目使用计算 建模技术，包括专家系统技术，以更多 系统地研究复杂的信仰体系对 处理外交政策信息。 具体来说，这项研究继续发展一个大型专家 系统模型，称为POLI，美国在亚洲的外交政策制定。 先前使用该模型的工作集中在20世纪50年代，并已证明 非常成功地再现了美国在亚洲的反应， 十年 本项目将尝试验证和完善该模型 从1960年开始， 通过现在。 当完成这个项目不仅应该提供一个更好的 了解美国外交政策的过程 但应该提供一个强大的工具，可以用来 政策制定者改善决策。

Foreign policy decisions are influenced to a considerable extent by the nature of the information available to the decision maker and by the way that information is analyzed and processed. A long tradition of previous research demonstrates that the way decisions makers perceive and respond to information depends significantly on their prior beliefs. To date, however, the complexity of these beliefs has made them very difficult to study systematically using standard empirical methods. This project uses computational modeling techniques, including expert system technology, to more systematically examine the impact of complex belief systems on the processing of foreign policy information. Specifically, this research continues development of a large expert system model, called POLI, of U.S. foreign policy making in Asia. Prior work with this model has focussed on the 1950s and has proven highly successful in reproducing U.S. responses to Asia during that decade. This project will attempt to validate and refine the model by extending its analysis of foreign policy in Asia from 1960 through the present. When completed this project not only should provide a better understanding of the processes through which U.S. foreign policy is made but should provide a powerful tool that can be used by policy makers to improve decision making.