An Economic Analysis of Welfare Administration

在1988财政年度，375万个家庭获得了AFDC 有受抚养子女的家庭补助（Aid to Families with Dependent Children）。 有 10.9接受援助的总人数为200万人，其中三分之二是儿童。 现金支付总额约为170亿美元。 总 AFDC计划的管理费用为22.9亿美元， 约占现金支付总额的13%。 在每个接受者的基础上， 在管理AFDC计划的费用中。 1988年， 例如，每个受援国的行政费用从低到高， 分别是密西西比和西弗吉尼亚州的53.64美元和85.92美元， 分别达到每年389.16美元和412.08美元的高点，在爱达荷州和 马萨诸塞州。 行政影响 关于AFDC计划的程序受到了有限的关注， 经济学家认为，尽管福利水平缺乏统一性， 国家之间的资格标准等等。 加剧了这些 AFDC计划的局限性欺诈的重要问题 控制 本研究将进行以下四个项目：（1）a 申请福利决策的理论模型， 包含严格性错误和宽松性错误;（2） 欺诈控制过程的博弈论模型， "庭外"和解（偿还）的可能性， （3）国家一级的时间序列横截面研究， 行政程序的影响，包括欺诈控制， （4）一个聚集的嵌套logit模型， 欺诈控制本身。 这项研究将有助于向福利政策制定者解释 影响欺诈程度的因素以及可能采取的措施， 更好地控制欺诈行为。 实证工作也将 提供对欺诈控制活动的程度的估计， 影响福利工作量和支出。

During fiscal year 1988, 3.75 million families received AFDC payments (Aid to Families with Dependent Children). There were 10.9 million total recipients, two thirds of whom were children. The total cash payments were approximately $17 billion. The total costs of administering the AFDC program were $2.29 billion, or around 13 percent of total cash payments. On a per recipient basis, there was substantial variation across the states in the cost of administering the AFDC program. In 1988, for example, per recipient administrative costs ranged from lows of $53.64 and $85.92 in Mississippi and West Virginia, respectively, to highs of $389.16 and 412.08 per year in Idaho and Massachusetts, respectively. The impact of administrative procedures on AFDC programs has received limited attention from economists, despite the lack of uniformity in benefits level, eligibility standards, and the like among states. Add to these limitations of the AFDC programs the important issue of fraud control. This study will undergo the following four projects: (1) a theoretical model of the decision to apply for welfare which incorporates both errors of stringency and errors of leniency; (2) a game-theoretical model of the fraud control process which focuses on the likelihood of "out-of-court" settlement (repayment) versus prosecution; (3) a state-level time-series cross-section study of the effects of administrative procedures, including fraud control, on the AFDC program; and (4) an aggregate nested logit model of the fraud control process itself. This research will help explain to welfare policy-makers what factors influence the level of fraud and what might be done to better control the level of fraud. The empirical work will also offer an estimate of the extent to which fraud control activities influence welfare caseload and expenditures.