Balanced and Unbalanced Growth

发展了一种适合于研究部门或区域相互作用的内生增长机制。评估了部门之间消费和生产联系对稳定增长的影响，并显示了经济历史学家对生产联系的高度重视如何与当代欠发达国家观察家对开放（通常意味着缺乏联系）的高度重视相协调。它还显示了部门或地区如何通过产品和劳动力市场在稳定状态下相互作用，特别是如果前者的相互作用主导了一个部门，那么它如何成为拉动另一个部门的“增长引擎”。如果后一种相互作用占主导地位，一个部门或地区繁荣而另一个部门或地区衰落。在这些结果的基础上，本文说明了为什么对外贸易自由化会导致从较低的稳定增长率向较高的稳定增长率过渡，以及为什么在这一过渡过程中，增长最初可能比自由化之前更慢。在此基础上，对1973年后智利的经济表现进行了重新解释。对以前独立的地区或国家的经济一体化的应用表明，如果允许一个地区衰落并为另一个地区提供廉价劳动力来源，将产生最大的增长效应。这项研究将对我们理解经济增长过程中部门或区域相互作用对经济一体化的响应作出重要贡献。

A mechanism of endogenous growth suitable for investigation of sectoral or regional interaction is developed. The effects on steady state growth of consumption and production linkages between sectors are assessed, and it is shown how the high value placed on production linkages by economic historians might be reconciled with the high value placed on openness (often implying lack of linkages) by observers of contemporary less developed countries. It is also shown how sectors or regions interact out of steady state through both product and labor markets, and in particular how if the former interaction dominates one sector can be an "engine of growth" pulling along the other, while if the latter interaction dominates one sector or region booms while the other declines. By building on these results it is shown why liberalization of foreign trade should lead to a transition from a lower to a higher steady state growth rate and why, during the course of this transition, growth might initially be even slower than before liberalization. On this basis a reinterpretation of the post-1973 economic performance of Chile is offered. An application to economic integration of previously separate regions or countries shows that the largest growth effects are to be had if one region is allowed to decline and provide a source of cheap labor for the other region. This study would make an important contribution to our understanding of sectoral or regional interaction in response to economic integration during the growth process.