Investigation of Predictive Methods for Hurricane Winds in the United States

该项目旨在从根本上 重新审视蒙特卡罗方法， 这是目前最先进的技术， 海湾和大西洋的飓风 美国的海洋。 意义 风力工程信息的产生， 近年来， 飓风事件，改进的数据库， 将研究基本建模方法。 开发一种改进的 飓风预测方法将是 审查和方法的局限性 将通过对每一项的详细研究进行审查， 模型的元素。 预期效益 这项研究是更可靠的估计50 百年一遇的飓风 风速和方向特性。

This project is aimed at a fundamental reexamination of the Monte Carlo approach, which is the current state-of-the-art, to estimate hurricane winds for the Gulf and Atlantic Ocean of the United States. The significance of wind engineering information produced in the measurements and analysis of recent hurricane events, improved data bases, and basic modeling approaches will be investigated. The feasibility of developing an improved hurricane prediction methodology will be examined and the limitations of the approach will be scrutinized by detailed research on each element of the model. Expected benefits from this study are more reliable estimates of the 50 and 100-year return period hurricanes windspeeds and directional characteristics.