Investigation of Predictive Methods for Hurricane Winds in the United States

这个项目的目的是从根本上重新审视蒙特卡洛方法，这是目前最先进的方法，用于估计美国墨西哥湾和大西洋的飓风风。将研究风工程信息在最近飓风事件的测量和分析、改进的数据库和基本建模方法中的意义。将审查开发改进的飓风预测方法的可行性，并将通过对模型的每个要素进行详细研究来仔细审查该方法的局限性。这项研究的预期收益是对50年和100年重现期、飓风风速和方向特征的更可靠的估计。

This project is aimed at a fundamental reexamination of the Monte Carlo approach, which is the current state-of-the-art, to estimate hurricane winds for the Gulf and Atlantic Ocean of the United States. The significance of wind engineering information produced in the measurements and analysis of recent hurricane events, improved data bases, and basic modeling approaches will be investigated. The feasibility of developing an improved hurricane prediction methodology will be examined and the limitations of the approach will be scrutinized by detailed research on each element of the model. Expected benefits from this study are more reliable estimates of the 50 and 100-year return period hurricanes windspeeds and directional characteristics.