Investigation of Predictive Methods for Hurricane Winds in the United States

这个项目的目的是从根本上重新审查蒙特卡洛方法，这是目前最先进的估计美国海湾和大西洋飓风的方法。将研究在测量和分析最近飓风事件、改进的数据库和基本建模方法中产生的风工程信息的意义。本文将研究发展一种改进的飓风预报方法的可行性，并通过对模型的每一个要素的详细研究来审查该方法的局限性。这项研究的预期好处是对50年和100年的飓风风速和方向特征的更可靠的估计。

This project is aimed at a fundamental reexamination of the Monte Carlo approach, which is the current state-of-the-art, to estimate hurricane winds for the Gulf and Atlantic Ocean of the United States. The significance of wind engineering information produced in the measurements and analysis of recent hurricane events, improved data bases, and basic modeling approaches will be investigated. The feasibility of developing an improved hurricane prediction methodology will be examined and the limitations of the approach will be scrutinized by detailed research on each element of the model. Expected benefits from this study are more reliable estimates of the 50 and 100-year return period hurricanes windspeeds and directional characteristics.