Statistical Evidence and Error in the Courtroom

本研究考察了在试验过程中统计证据的使用。统计证据，如DNA分析，可能会导致判断错误，该研究调查了事实发现者最受这些证据影响的条件。研究的第一阶段检查了最近试验数据中统计证据的使用和特征，以便识别和分析混淆和判断错误的中心点，如源概率误差和数值转换误差。第二阶段是一项试点研究，对模拟陪审员和执业法官进行一系列实验，以检验专家定量证词的背景、方式和生动程度如何影响事实发现者的概率判断和判决。本研究将为以下方面提供实证基础：(1)检验直觉定量推理理论的优缺点；(2)对统计痕迹证据误导性主张的性质和意义的理解；（三）制定定量鉴定标准；(4)建议对法学课程进行适当的量化培训。

This study examines the use of statistical evidence in the trial process. Statistical evidence, such as DNA analyses, may give rise to judgment errors, and the study investigates the conditions under which fact-finders will be most influenced by this evidence. The first phase of the study examines the use and characterization of statistical evidence in recent trial data in order to identify and analyze central points of confusion and judgment errors such as the source probability error and the numerical conversion error. The second phase is a pilot study to conduct a series of experiments with mock jurors and practicing judges to examine how the context, manner, and vividness of quantitative testimony from experts affect fact-finder's probabilistic judgment and verdicts. The study will provide the empirical foundation for: (1) testing the strengths and weaknesses of theories about intuitive quantitative reasoning; (2) understanding of the nature and significance of misleading claims about statistical trace evidence; (3) developing standards for quantitative expert testimony; and (4) suggesting appropriate quantitative training for law curricula.