Market Structure and Aggregate Fluctuations

本研究的前提是，不完全竞争的产品市场和企业拥有的市场力量程度的变化在各种总体冲击如何影响就业和经济活动中发挥重要作用。本研究旨在考察各种不完全竞争模型，其中均衡加价随总冲击而变化。将特别注意发展一个理论上严谨的、经过经验检验的能源价格变化对美国产出和就业影响的定量模型。各种理论的实证成功将通过两种方式进行检验。首先，某些冲击（如世界石油价格的变化）对美国经济的影响将使用相对理论性的计量经济学规范进行估计。然后将这些估计的脉冲响应与理论模型的“校准”版本的定量预测进行比较。其次，将对模型的某些结构方程（特别是那些将平均加价与其他宏观经济变量联系起来的模型）进行计量经济学估计，并对各种理论所隐含的系数限制进行正式检验。这个项目值得称道，因为它涉及实质性的经济问题——市场结构对总波动的影响。它还将有助于缩小目前不同宏观经济思想流派之间在方法论上的差距。最后，对油价冲击后果的研究本身就是一项非常重要和值得注意的活动。

This study takes the premise that imperfectly competitive product markets and variations in the degree of market power possessed by firms play important roles in how a variety of aggregate shocks affect employment and economic activity. This study intends to examine various models of imperfect competition in which the equilibrium markup changes in response to aggregate shocks. Particular attention will be given to developing a theoretically rigorous and empirically tested quantitative model of the effects on U.S. output and employment of energy price changes. The empirical success of the various theories will be tested in two ways. First, the effects of certain shocks (such as changes in world oil prices) upon the U.S. economy will be estimated using a relatively atheoretical econometric specification. These estimated impulse responses will then be compared to the quantitative predictions of "calibrated" versions of the theoretical models. Second, certain structural equations of the models (especially those linking average mark-ups to other macroeconomic variables) will be estimated econometrically, and the coefficient restrictions implied by the various theories formally will be tested. This project is meritorious because it deals with substantive economic matters - the influence of market structure on aggregate fluctuations. It will also serve to close current methodological gaps between alternative schools of macroeconomic thought. Finally, the study of the consequences of oil price shocks is in itself a very important and noteworthy activity.