Information-Constrained Dynamic Models of Choice Behavior

选择行为的信息约束动态模型

• 批准号: 1426168
• 负责人: Michael Woodford
• 金额: $ 21.7万
• 依托单位: Columbia University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-09-01 至 2017-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1426168&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Information; Constrained; Dynamic; Models; Choice

This project will explore models of the cognitive processes underlying human choice behavior in economic contexts. The models to be explored allow for departures from fully-informed optimal choice. Rather than positing that behavior is simply "irrational," they will explain departures from optimal decision-making as resulting from the (generally pre-conscious) use of choice algorithms that are well-suited to mostly achieving decision makers' objectives. The choice algoritms also would not require greater information-processing capacity. If successful, the research will have broad implications for the development of economic theory by showing how research findings in other disciplines, such as psychology, vision science and neuroscience, can be integrated into economic analysis. It should also have broad implications for the design of economic policies, if accurate perception of the incentives of policies changes individuals' behavior.The project will explore the ability of the proposed theory to explain anomalies of economic choice in a variety of contexts. Applications to be considered include processing errors as a source of randomness in observed choices; delays in the adjustment of behavior to changing market conditions and differential degrees of delay in the response to differing types of news; excess volatility of asset prices as a result of inattentiveness on the part of some traders to current market conditions; "focusing illusions" in which certain attributes of alternatives are disproportionately influential in determining choice; context effects in consumer choice, such as those that allow manipulation of purchasing behavior by the addition of additional alternatives to the set with which consumers are presented; and aspects of choice with regard to risky outcomes that are inconsistent with the theory of expected utility maximization. The approach to be pursued differs from previous treatments of these aspects of behavior by seeking a more unified explanation for them, and providing functional explanations for such patterns of behavior rather than merely documenting "biases." The theory to beexplored imposes additional constraints on the theory of "rational inattention" (Sims, 2003, 2010). Particular attention will be given to the dynamic processes of decision-making as a result of accumulation of successive pieces of evidence, each of which is only slightly informative as to best course of action, and to the optimal selection of attention to different aspects of the choice situation in the course of such a dynamic process. The constraints on information processing that are proposed are ones that are common features of descriptive (non-normative) models of cognitive processes involved in both perceptual judgments and value-based decisionmaking. The empirical observations on which these are based include not only the frequencies with which particular choices or judgments are made in particular decision problems, but other measurements that provide evidence about the cognitive processes giving rise to these choices, such as reaction times and measures of neural activation. The proposed research will compare the predictions of normative models based on information constraints with experimental evidence of the kind used to test descriptive models of decision making.

这个项目将探讨在经济背景下人类选择行为的认知过程模型。待探讨的模型允许偏离完全知情的最佳选择。他们并不认为行为只是“非理性的”，而是将偏离最优决策的行为解释为（通常是有意识的）使用选择算法的结果，这些算法非常适合实现决策者的目标。选择算法也不需要更大的信息处理能力。如果成功，这项研究将对经济理论的发展产生广泛的影响，表明如何将心理学、视觉科学和神经科学等其他学科的研究成果纳入经济分析。如果对政策激励的准确理解改变了个人的行为，那么它也应该对经济政策的设计产生广泛的影响。该项目将探讨所提出的理论在各种情况下解释经济选择异常的能力。需要考虑的应用包括：作为观察到的选择中的随机性来源的处理错误;在根据不断变化的市场条件调整行为方面的延迟，以及在对不同类型的新闻作出反应方面的不同程度的延迟;由于一些交易者对当前市场条件的疏忽而造成的资产价格的过度波动;“聚焦错觉”，即替代品的某些属性在决定选择时具有不成比例的影响力;消费者选择的背景效应，例如那些允许通过向消费者提供的集合添加额外的替代品来操纵购买行为的方法;以及与期望效用最大化理论不一致的风险结果的选择方面。我们所追求的方法不同于以往对这些行为方面的处理，它寻求对它们的更统一的解释，并为这些行为模式提供功能性解释，而不仅仅是记录“偏见”。待探索的理论对“理性疏忽”理论施加了额外的限制（西姆斯，2003，2010）。特别注意的是决策的动态过程，作为连续证据的积累的结果，其中每一个都是只有轻微的信息，以最佳的行动方针，并注意在这样一个动态过程中的选择情况的不同方面的最佳选择。所提出的信息处理的限制是那些共同的特征的描述性（非规范性）模型的认知过程中涉及的感知判断和基于价值的决策。这些方法所依据的经验观察不仅包括在特定决策问题中做出特定选择或判断的频率，还包括其他测量方法，这些测量方法为产生这些选择的认知过程提供了证据，例如反应时间和神经激活的测量方法。拟议的研究将比较基于信息约束的规范模型的预测与用于测试决策描述模型的实验证据。