Monetary Policy, Inflation Stabilization, and Welfare

货币政策、通胀稳定和福利

• 批准号: 9809469
• 负责人: Michael Woodford
• 金额: $ 19.77万
• 依托单位: National Bureau of Economic Research Inc
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 1998
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1998-08-15 至 2002-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9809469&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Monetary; Policy; Inflation; Stabilization; Welfare

This project is concerned with the analysis of alternative rules for monetary policy. The rules to be considered consist of alternative specifications of feedback rules for setting the Federal funds rate, the instrument of monetary policy in the U.S. While the numerical results of the study will address U.S. policy choice in particular, the more general conclusions are likely to be of application to other economies as well. The class of rules that will receive primary attention makes the funds rate a function of the current and recent past evolution of inflation and real economic activity, and of its own recent past values. Such a specification incorporates the two types of variables that most clearly affect current U.S. policy, and allows consideration of a range of popular policy proposals as well. Under at least certain simple assumptions, a policy within that class can also be shown to be optimal. Issues to be addressed include the degree to which it is desirable for policy to respond to these two variables, the consequences of responding to such data only with a delay, and the consequences of adjusting policy only gradually over time rather than in one sudden move. Consideration will also be given to the possible advantages of the use of additional indicators, especially when direct measures of inflation and output are not available that are sufficiently timely or accurate. Among such other indicators, the proper use of inflation forecasts will receive particular attention. The project will analyze alternative policies in the context of a small structural model in which the model equations are derived from explicit intertemporal optimization on the part of the suppliers and demanders of goods, and as a result incorporate forward-looking behavior; the analysis will thus take account of the `Lucas critique` of more traditional methods of econometric policy evaluation. At the same time, the model parameters are estimated on the basis of U.S. aggregate time series, and the model is able to mimic the properties of U.S. data on output, inflation and interest rate variations in considerable detail. A benchmark version of such a model has been introduced in recent work with Julio Rotemberg of Harvard; but the model will be further elaborated under this project. Comparability of the results obtained with this model with those of other small structural models will also be considered, in attempt to reach conclusions that are relatively robust to alternative assumptions in areas where model uncertainty is especially significant. Alternative policies will be evaluated from a variety of points of view. Particular emphasis will be given to the consequences of policy for the variability of inflation, and for the average rate of inflation (which turns out to be closely related to a policy's consequences for the variability of short term interest rates). The use of a model with optimizing foundations means that it is also possible to consider macroeconomic performance under alternative policies in terms of the level of private welfare attained, according to the preferences reflected in the structural relations of the model. Thus the project will also compute measures of the `deadweight loss` resulting from price level instability, in the spirit of standard public finance exercises, and seek to characterize the policy rules that are optimal in the sense of minimizing this loss, under various assumptions about the information available to the Fed, and the degree of complexity that the rule may involve. Theoretical deadweight loss will be shown to be increasing in both the average rate of inflation and its variability, owing to the relative price distortions caused by inflation when prices are not all changed simultaneously; hence policies that are desirable in terms of their consequences for these intuitive criteria are closely related to those that are optimal in welfare terms.

该项目涉及分析货币政策的替代规则。需要考虑的规则包括设定联邦基金利率（美国的货币政策工具）的反馈规则的替代规范。虽然研究的数值结果将特别针对美国的政策选择，但更普遍的结论也可能适用于其他经济体。将受到主要关注的规则类别使基金利率成为当前和最近过去通货膨胀和真实的经济活动演变的函数，以及其自身最近的过去价值。这样的规范包含了两类最明显影响美国当前政策的变量，并允许考虑一系列流行的政策建议。至少在某些简单的假设下，该类中的策略也可以被证明是最优的。需要处理的问题包括：政策对这两个变量作出反应的可取程度;对这类数据作出反应的滞后性的后果;政策调整只是随着时间的推移逐步进行而不是突然进行的后果。还将考虑使用额外指标的可能好处，特别是在没有足够及时或准确的通货膨胀和产出直接计量方法的情况下。在这些其他指标中，适当使用通货膨胀预测将受到特别注意。 该项目将在一个小型结构模型的背景下分析替代政策，在该模型中，模型方程是从货物供应者和需求者明确的跨期优化中得出的，因此纳入了前瞻性行为;因此，分析将考虑到对计量经济学政策评价的传统方法的“卢卡斯批评”。同时，模型参数是基于美国总体时间序列估计的，该模型能够相当详细地模拟美国产出、通货膨胀和利率变化数据的性质。在最近与哈佛的Julio Rotemberg的合作中，已经介绍了这种模型的基准版本;但该模型将在本项目下进一步阐述。还将考虑用该模型获得的结果与其他小型结构模型的结果的可比性，以试图得出在模型不确定性特别显著的领域中相对稳健的替代假设的结论。 将从各种不同的角度对备选政策进行评估。特别强调的是政策对通货膨胀的可变性和平均通货膨胀率的影响（这与政策对短期利率的可变性的影响密切相关）。使用具有优化基础的模型意味着，还可以根据模型结构关系中反映的偏好，从所获得的私人福利水平的角度来考虑替代政策下的宏观经济绩效。因此，该项目还将按照标准公共财政工作的精神，计算价格水平不稳定造成的“无谓损失”的衡量标准，并在关于美联储可获得的信息和规则可能涉及的复杂程度的各种假设下，试图描述在最大限度地减少这种损失的意义上最优的政策规则。理论上的无谓损失在平均通货膨胀率及其可变性方面都会增加，这是由于当价格不同时发生变化时，通货膨胀造成的相对价格扭曲;因此，就这些直观标准的后果而言，理想的政策与福利条件下的最优政策密切相关。