ABR: Developments in Matrix Population Analysis

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This project has both basic and applied aspects. One of the most important basic research developments in population ecology in the last decade has been the increased use of modeling techniques that encompass population structure, I.E., the distribution of individuals into age classes, size classes or developmental stages. Matrix population models are one of these techniques, one particularly suited to inter-population comparisons and to stochastic analysis. The research proposed here will extend the basic theory for comparative analysis to permit evaluation of the population-level effects of environmental factors, and will explicitly connect matrix population models to stochastic models for the growth and extinction of small populations. Each aspect of this project contributes to an important applied problem. Measuring the responses of populations to environmental factors is essential for evaluating the impact of pollutants, possible climactic changes, harvesting, biological control and other anthropogenic effects. The results of this project will be directly applicable to such studies. The problem of extinction of small populations is crucial to population viability calculations in conservation biology. The models currently used for such analyses ignore population structure, which may have important effects on viability. The results of this project will be directly applicable to such situations.