OPUS: Synthesizing Recent Developments in Sensitivity Analysis for Use in Population Ecology

OPUS：综合人口生态学敏感性分析的最新进展

• 批准号: 1119774
• 负责人: Hal Caswell
• 金额: $ 18.43万
• 依托单位: Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-08-01 至 2014-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1119774&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: OPUS; Synthesizing; Recent; Developments; Sensitivity

The Opportunities for Promoting Understanding through Synthesis program (OPUS) supports the synthesis of research results produced over an extended period by a single individual or a group of collaborating researchers. This OPUS project will produce a book integrating a series of journal publications by the Principal Investigator on the sensitivity analysis of population models. Sensitivity analysis, the focus of this project, answers the fundamental question, "what would happen if some specified aspect of a system was to change"? Sensitivity analysis is essential to the development of robust models in ecology used to study e.g., natural environmental changes, anthropogenic impacts, the benefits of management strategies, and the response to evolutionary modifications. Although our ability to model ecological phenomena is good, it will never be perfect; even if it was, it would not be sufficient. There is always the possibility that things could be different, and the certainty that at some point they will be different. It is only through an analysis of model sensitivity that we judge the significance of our uncertainty. This OPUS project will increase the dissemination of powerful new mathematical methods for sensitivity analysis, with applications to linear, nonlinear, stochastic, deterministic, spatial, and subsidized population models. The book to be produced on this project will make these new methods accessible to students, researchers, and managers concerned with the conservation, demography and population dynamics of species, greatly extending the range of models and questions that can be addressed and their value in application. This project also will have broader impacts in the area of education, both through the use of the book in university courses, and through the presentation of workshops to ecologists, conservation biologists, and human demographers.

通过综合促进理解的机会计划（OPUS）支持对单个人或一组合作研究人员在很长一段时间内产生的研究成果进行综合。 该OPUS项目将出版一本书，其中整合了首席研究员关于人口模型敏感性分析的一系列期刊出版物。 敏感性分析，这个项目的焦点，回答了基本的问题，“如果系统的某些特定方面发生变化，会发生什么？” 敏感性分析对于生态学中用于研究的稳健模型的开发至关重要，例如，自然环境变化，人为影响，管理策略的好处，以及对进化修改的反应。尽管我们对生态现象进行建模的能力很好，但它永远不会完美;即使完美，也不够。 事情总是有可能不同的，而且在某个时候它们肯定会不同。 只有通过对模型敏感性的分析，我们才能判断不确定性的重要性。 该OPUS项目将增加敏感性分析的强大的新数学方法的传播，并将其应用于线性，非线性，随机，确定性，空间和补贴人口模型。 这本书将在这个项目上制作，使这些新方法的学生，研究人员和管理人员关心的保护，人口统计学和种群动态的物种，大大扩展了模型的范围和问题，可以解决和应用价值。 该项目还将在教育领域产生更广泛的影响，既通过在大学课程中使用该书，也通过向生态学家、保护生物学家和人类人口学家举办讲习班。