Spatial Models of Rocky Subtidal Communities

岩石潮下群落的空间模型硬基质潮下群落具有多样性高、空间竞争激烈、小尺度周转和大尺度稳定性的特点。该研究项目将利用缅因湾的详细长期数据集，为潮下群落开发一系列四种模型。模型1是一个线性马尔可夫链模型，描述了群落内个体的替换，并使用随机过程理论的工具来表征群落的演替和收敛，并发展了扰动分析来表征对转移概率变化的响应。模型2是模型1的非线性版本；它包括转换率的密度依赖性，并将纳入新的、基于最大似然的参数估计方法。模型3是一个随机元胞自动机，它将模型1和模型2的框架嵌入到一个明确的空间设置中。该模型将用于研究空间格局对潮下群落的影响。模型4也是一个元胞自动机，但直接从产生物种过渡的机制（招募、生长、干扰和竞争）的测量中发展而来。这项研究将为研究群落动态提供新的方法，并增加对岩石潮下群落的了解。

CASWELL 9811267Spatial Models of Rocky Subtidal CommunitiesSubtidal communities on hard substrates are characterized by high diversity, intense competition for space, small-scale turnover, and large-scale stability. This research project will develop a series of four models for subtidal communities, using a detailed, long-term data set from the Gulf of Maine. Model I is a linear Markov chain model describing the replacement of individuals within the community and using tools from stochastic process theory to characterize succession and convergence in the community and develop perturbation analysis to characterize the response to changes in transition probabilities. Model 2 is a nonlinear version of Model 1; it includes density-dependence in rates of transition and will incorporate new, maximum likelihood-based methods for parameter estimations. Model 3 is a stochastic cellular automaton, which embeds the framework of Models I and 2 in an explicit spatial setting. This model will be used to investigate the effects of spatial pattern in subtidal communities. Model 4 is also a cellular automaton, but is developed directly from measurements of the mechanisms (recruitment, growth, disturbance, and competition) that generate species transitions. This research will provide new methods for studying community dynamics in general, and an increased understanding of rocky subtidal communities.