Dynamics and Predictability of Convective Storms

对流风暴的动力学和可预测性

• 批准号: 9222576
• 负责人: Kelvin Droegemeier
• 金额: $ 36.02万
• 依托单位: University of Oklahoma Norman Campus
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 1993
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1993-07-01 至 1997-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9222576&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Dynamics; Predictability; Convective; Storms

Convective storms are of fundamental interest to scientists as well as important to the general public. Such storms produce severe weather that is economically disruptive and life-threatening as well as producing beneficial rainfall. Accurate short term predictions (up to 24 hours) of the location, timing, intensity and type of convective storm would be of substantial benefit to society. Using the Advanced Regional Prediction System numerical model developed at a NSF Science and Technology Center, Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms, the Principal Investigator will attack various aspects of prediction of convective activity. By using broader parameter spaces as well as higher spatial resolution, more realistic methods for inserting pseudo-observational errors into the simulations during storm evolution, and a more accurate method for treating subgrid-scale motions, the Principal Investigator will evaluate the utility of various dynamical parameters in predicting storm behavior within a variety of environmental settings; examine linkages between helicity and energy dissipation; and attempt to understand how errors grow and propagate in convective storms so as to establish predictability limits as a function of storm type, environment and other parameters.

对流风暴是科学家的根本利益所在，也是公众的重要利益所在。这样的风暴会产生破坏经济、危及生命的恶劣天气，同时也会带来有益的降雨。对对流风暴的地点、时间、强度和类型进行准确的短期预测(长达24小时)将对社会产生重大好处。使用NSF科学技术中心风暴分析和预测中心开发的高级区域预测系统数值模式，首席调查员将对对流活动预测的各个方面进行攻击。通过使用更广泛的参数空间以及更高的空间分辨率，在风暴演变过程中将伪观测误差插入到模拟中的更现实的方法，以及更准确地处理亚网格尺度运动的方法，首席调查员将评估各种动力学参数在各种环境设置下预测风暴行为的效用；研究螺旋度和能量耗散之间的联系；并试图了解误差如何在对流风暴中增长和传播，以确定作为风暴类型、环境和其他参数的函数的可预测性界限。