Collaborative Research in Decision, Risk, and Management Science: Utility Theories with Joint Receipts and Reference Levels

决策、风险和管理科学的合作研究：具有联合收益和参考水平的效用理论

• 批准号: 9308915
• 负责人: Detlof von Winterfeldt
• 金额: $ 14.1万
• 依托单位: University of Southern California
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 1993
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1993-09-01 至 1996-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9308915&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Decision; Risk; Management

9308915 Von Winterfeldt Almost forty years of experience with theories about rational decision making on the part of individuals confronting risk and uncertainty -- technically, subjective expected utility theories (SEU) -- has led to two firm conclusions. One, stressed primarily by psychologists, is that this class of models, while overall fairly descriptive, fails to describe certain crucial aspects of actual behavior in many experimental and real world situations. The other, stressed primarily by economists and decision analysts, is that the axioms of the SEU model are normatively very compelling and the model has proved useful in numerous applied situations. Recognizing both the descriptive failure and normative usefulness of the classical model, the PIs have explored the common ground held by both the experimentalists and the applied decision analysts, attempted to discover exactly where the two part company, and sought a prescriptive theory that satisfies both experimental concerns and applied expectations. Like SEU this new theory -- technically rank- and sign-dependent utility (RSDU) theory -- is based (axiomatically) on fairly simple, quite compelling, underlying behavioral principles, and also like SEU, it results in a numerical representation as a weighted average, but unlike SEU the weights are not probabilities and their values depend not only on the underlying chance event but on whether the associated outcome is a gain or a loss. Fundamental to the theory is the differential treatment of an event depending on whether it is associated to a gain or a loss relative to a status quo and the incorporation of the concept of joint receipt -- of getting two or more things at the same time -- that allows an explicit, simple characterization of the fundamental non-rationality of the theory. This project examines several theoretical, experimental, and applied issues that remain unresolved: On the theoretical side, while RSDU is a fairly good descript ive theory of choice behavior, it needs modification to accommodate the violations of its axioms which occur when judged certainty equivalents are used rather than choice procedures. On the empirical side, the project examines, among other things, Thaler's rule for the utility of the joint receipt of two or more things; the descriptive validity of the quasi-rational assumptions underlying RSDU; the construction of a reference level (local status quo) in terms of the choice set; and alternative combination rules for the aggregation of gains and losses around the status quo. Regarding applied issues, we are convinced that the status quo plays an important role in decision making and so it is highly desirable to develop prescriptive theories that depend explicitly on it. In addition, the project will investigate the limitations and potential pitfalls of sign dependent utility as a prescriptive theory. ***

小行星9308915 近40年的经验与理论理性决策的一部分，个人面临风险和不确定性-技术上，主观预期效用理论（SEU）-导致两个坚定的结论。 首先，心理学家强调，这类模型虽然总体上具有相当的描述性，但在许多实验和真实的世界情境中，却无法描述实际行为的某些关键方面。 另一个主要由经济学家和决策分析师强调的是，SEU模型的公理在规范上非常引人注目，并且该模型已被证明在许多应用情况下有用。 认识到经典模型的描述性失败和规范性有用性，PI探索了实验主义者和应用决策分析师所持有的共同点，试图发现这两部分公司的确切位置，并寻求满足实验关注和应用期望的规定性理论。 像SEU一样，这个新理论--技术上的秩和符号相关效用（RSDU）理论--是基于（公理上）相当简单，相当引人注目，基本的行为原则，也像SEU，它导致一个数字表示为加权平均值，但与SEU不同的是，权重不是概率，它们的值不仅取决于潜在的机会事件，还取决于相关的结果是否一个收益或损失。 这一理论的基础是根据一个事件相对于现状是与收益还是损失相关来区别对待它，并纳入了共同收益的概念-同时得到两个或两个以上的东西-这使得可以明确、简单地描述这一理论的根本不合理性。 该项目研究了几个尚未解决的理论、实验和应用问题：在理论方面，虽然RSDU是一个相当好的选择行为描述理论，但它需要修改以适应当使用判断确定性等价物而不是选择程序时发生的违反其公理的情况。 在实证方面，该项目审查，除其他事项外，泰勒的规则的效用联合接收两个或两个以上的东西;描述性的有效性的准理性假设RSDU的基础;建设一个参考水平（当地现状）的选择集;和替代组合规则的收益和损失的总和围绕现状。关于应用问题，我们相信现状在决策中起着重要的作用，因此非常希望开发明确依赖于现状的规定性理论。此外，该项目将调查符号依赖效用作为规定性理论的局限性和潜在陷阱。 ***