Models of Strategic Thinking: A Theoretical, Experimental and Statistical Study

9308914斯塔尔 本研究的目的是发展战略思维的替代理论，设计实验来检验理论，并对实验数据进行统计分析，以回答以下问题： - 是否有可能发现不同的战略模式， 在一个明显同质的群体中， 实验对象，从而拒绝假设的一个 战略思维模式？ - 假设没有一个实验对象恰好是 理论上的类型，每种类型中有多少多样性 分类类型是由于（a）先验的小变化 和（B）受试者的计算错误？ - 如果向受试者提供关于 过去的人口选择，如何将各种类型的 把这些信息？ 这项研究的结果应该对我们理解个人战略决策和多决策者问题做出重要贡献。 ***

9308914 Stahl The purpose of this proposed research is to develop alternative theories of strategic thinking, design experiments to test the theories, and statistically analyze the experimental data to answer the following questions: - Is it possible to detect different modes of strategic thinking in an apparently homogeneous population of experimental subjects, thereby rejecting the hypothesis of a common mode of strategic thinking? - Assuming that no experimental subject is precisely one of the theoretical types, how much diversity within each categorical type is due to (a) small variations in priors and (b) computational errors by subjects? - If subjects are given aggregate information about the past choices of the population, how will the various types incorporate that information? The results of this research should make important contributions to our understanding of individual strategic decision making and multi-decision-maker problems. ***