Models of Strategic Thinking: A Theoretical, Experimental and Statistical Study

9410501斯塔尔这项研究将开发一种替代的战略思维理论，允许具有不同思维过程的参与者群体，将是经验性的，并将产生对人类行为的更准确的预测。对实验数据的分析预计将回答以下问题，以及其他问题：-相对于替代理论，该模型预测得有多好？-根据球员的选择确定特定球员的类型有多可靠？识别的类型在各种不同数量的游戏中是不变的吗？它对预测样本外行为有效吗？-可以检测到异常的受试者吗？-假设玩家得到了关于人群过去选择的完整信息，假设各种类型的游戏会包含这些信息是否合理？这项研究意义重大，因为它提供的结果将丰富我们对战略环境下个人决策的理解。

9410501 Stahl This research will develop an alternative theory of strategic thinking that would allow for a population of players with a variety of thought processes, would be empirically testable, and would yield more accurate predictions of human behavior. The analysis of the experimental data is expected to answer the following questions, among others: - How well does the model predict relative to alternative theories? - How robust is the determination of the type of a specific player from that player's choices? Is the tpye of identification invariant over a variety and number of games, and is it valid for predicting out-of-sample behavior? - Can extra-ordinary subjects be detected? - Assuming that players are given complete information about the past choices of the population, is it reasonable to assume that the various types would incorporate that information? The study is significant because it provides results that would enrich our understanding of individual decision making in strategic settings.