Models of Strategic Thinking: A Theoretical, Experimental and Statistical Study

战略思维模型：理论、实验和统计研究

• 批准号: 9410501
• 负责人: Dale Stahl
• 金额: $ 15.73万
• 依托单位: University of Texas at Austin
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 1994
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1994-10-15 至 1998-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9410501&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Models; Strategic; Thinking; Theoretical; Experimental

9410501 Stahl This research will develop an alternative theory of strategic thinking that would allow for a population of players with a variety of thought processes, would be empirically testable, and would yield more accurate predictions of human behavior. The analysis of the experimental data is expected to answer the following questions, among others: - How well does the model predict relative to alternative theories? - How robust is the determination of the type of a specific player from that player's choices? Is the tpye of identification invariant over a variety and number of games, and is it valid for predicting out-of-sample behavior? - Can extra-ordinary subjects be detected? - Assuming that players are given complete information about the past choices of the population, is it reasonable to assume that the various types would incorporate that information? The study is significant because it provides results that would enrich our understanding of individual decision making in strategic settings.

9410501斯塔尔这项研究将开发一种战略思维的替代理论，该理论将允许具有各种思维过程的玩家群体，将是经验上可检验的，并且将产生对人类行为的更准确的预测。对实验数据的分析预计将回答以下问题： - 相对于其他理论，该模型的预测效果如何？ - 确定特定参与者类型的可靠性如何 玩家的选择识别的类型是不变的吗 在各种各样的游戏中，它是否有效预测 样本外行为 - 是否可以检测到异常对象？ - 假设参与者被告知关于过去的完整信息 人民的选择，是合理的假设， 不同的类型会包含这些信息吗？ 这项研究意义重大，因为它提供的结果将丰富我们对战略环境中个人决策的理解。