Aspects of Productivity Measurement

[9311671]戈登人们普遍认为，过去二十年生产率增长缓慢是美国面临的最大经济问题。尽管美国生产率的重要性得到了广泛认可，但经济学家在理解这一现象方面仍未取得什么进展。1982年后平均劳动生产率和多因素生产率增长率的放缓，经受住了经济学家提供单一原因解释的努力，包括能源价格波动、私人投资不足、基础设施投资不足、政府监管过度和教育成绩下降。虽然其中一些因素可能是部分原因，但即使把它们加在一起，它们似乎也无法解释大部分的经济放缓。这个正在进行的研究项目采用了一种全面的方法来研究美国缓慢的生产率。它的重点结合了三个维度——(1)长期历史研究、(2)跨国研究和(3)个别行业研究——并试图通过单独或结合研究这些维度来提高理解程度。与传统观点相反，在过去的120年里，美国的生产率增长呈现出“一大波”的模式，从1870年到1913年增长缓慢，从1913年到1964年增长迅速（1928-50年达到顶峰），1964年之后再次放缓。该项目试图隔离发生大浪的工业部门，评估其统计准确性，并提出解释它的假设。该研究的跨国方面详细介绍了其他大国的各行业生产率数据，以确定美国与美国之间的最大差异。它评估了不同的测量方法在解释差异方面的作用。最后，将对美国建筑业进行详细的行业研究，该行业自20世纪60年代中期以来一直表现出负的生产率增长

9311671 Gordon There is widespread agreement that slow productivity growth over the past two decades is the greatest economic problem faced by the United States. While the importance of U.S. productivity is widely recognized, economists have as yet made little progress in understanding the phenomenon. The post-1982 slowdown in the growth rates of average labor productivity and multi-factor productivity have withstood the efforts of economists to provide a single-cause explanation, including fluctuations of energy prices, inadequate private investment, inadequate infrastructure investment, excessive government regulation, and declining educational scores. While some of these may make a partial contribution, even when combined they appear to leave most of the slowdown unexplained. This ongoing research project takes a comprehensive approach to the study of slow U.S. productivity. Its focus combines three dimensions - (1) long-run historical, (2) cross-country, and (3) individual industry studies - and attempts by studying these dimensions singly and in combination to develop an improved degree of understanding. Contrary to conventional wisdom, over the past 120 years productivity growth in the U.S. displays the pattern of "one big wave," slow from 1870 to 1913, rapid from 1913 to 1964 (peaking in 1928-50), and slow again after 1964. The project attempts to isolate the industrial sectors where the big wave occurs, assess its statistical accuracy, and develop hypotheses to explain it. The cross-country aspect of the research detailed industry-by- industry data on productivity for other large nations to identify the largest differences between the U.S. It assesses the role of differing measurement methodology in accounting for the differences. Finally, a detailed industry study will be carried out for the U.S. construction sector, which has exhibited negative measured productivity growth since the mid-1960s. ***