Collaborative Research: Impact of Uncertainty in Initial Conditions on Prediction Explosive Cyclogenesis

这是亚利桑那大学的Steven Mullen博士（ATM-9319411）和Frederick Sanders博士的合作项目。目的是了解初始数据不确定性对爆炸气旋形成的短期（1-2天）和长期（3-5天）预报的影响。这将通过诊断研究和预测实验来完成。全球谱模式和有限区域中尺度模式都将用于气旋的模式模拟。对观察到的病例的分析也将加以审查。此外，pi计划进行蒙特卡罗集合预测，以评估该技术在最小化预测变异性的负面影响方面的有效性。爆炸性气旋形成事件，无论是在陆地上还是在海洋上，在经济和安全方面都代表着潜在的危险风暴。主要研究人员希望提供最有希望的方法来改进这类风暴的预测。＊＊＊

9318751 Sanders This is a collaborative project between Dr. Steven Mullen of the University of Arizona (ATM-9319411) and Dr. Frederick Sanders. The goal is to understand the impact of initial data uncertainty in short-range (1-2 day) and extended range (3-5 day) forecasts of explosive cyclogenesis. This will be accomplished through diagnostic studies and forecast experiments. Both a global spectral model and a limited-area mesoscale model will be used to produce model simulations of cyclone cases. Analyses of observed cases will be examined as well. In addition, the PIs plan to conduct Monte-Carlo ensemble forecasts to evaluate the efficacy of this technique in minimizing the negative impact of forecast variability. Explosive cyclogenesis events, whether over land or ocean, represent potentially dangerous storms in terms of both economics and safety. The principal investigators hope to provide insights into the most promising ways to improve the forecasts of such storms. ***