Collaborative Research: Impact of Uncertainty in Initial Conditions on Prediction Explosive Cyclogenesis

9318751桑德斯这是亚利桑那大学的史蒂文·马伦博士(ATM-9319411)和弗雷德里克·桑德斯博士的合作项目。其目的是了解爆炸性气旋发生的短期(1-2天)和扩展范围(3-5天)预报的初始数据不确定性的影响。这将通过诊断性研究和预报试验来实现。全球谱模式和有限区域中尺度模式都将用于制作气旋情况的模式模拟。对观察到的案例的分析也将被审查。此外，私人投资促进机构计划进行蒙特卡罗集合预报，以评估这项技术在尽量减少预报可变性的负面影响方面的成效。无论是在陆地上还是在海洋上，爆炸性的气旋发生事件在经济和安全方面都是潜在的危险风暴。主要调查人员希望为改进这类风暴预报的最有希望的方法提供见解。***

9318751 Sanders This is a collaborative project between Dr. Steven Mullen of the University of Arizona (ATM-9319411) and Dr. Frederick Sanders. The goal is to understand the impact of initial data uncertainty in short-range (1-2 day) and extended range (3-5 day) forecasts of explosive cyclogenesis. This will be accomplished through diagnostic studies and forecast experiments. Both a global spectral model and a limited-area mesoscale model will be used to produce model simulations of cyclone cases. Analyses of observed cases will be examined as well. In addition, the PIs plan to conduct Monte-Carlo ensemble forecasts to evaluate the efficacy of this technique in minimizing the negative impact of forecast variability. Explosive cyclogenesis events, whether over land or ocean, represent potentially dangerous storms in terms of both economics and safety. The principal investigators hope to provide insights into the most promising ways to improve the forecasts of such storms. ***