Collaborative Research: Impact of Uncertainty in Initial Conditions on Prediction Explosive Cyclogenesis

小行星9318751 这是亚利桑那大学的Steven马伦博士（ATM-9319411）和Frederick Sanders博士之间的合作项目。 目标是了解初始数据不确定性对爆炸性气旋生成的短期（1-2天）和长期（3-5天）预报的影响。 这将通过诊断研究和预报实验来实现。 将使用全球谱模式和有限区域中尺度模式对气旋情况进行模式模拟。 还将审查对观察到的病例的分析。 此外，项目研究员计划进行蒙特-卡罗集合预报，以评估这种技术在尽量减少预报变异的负面影响方面的效力。 无论是陆地还是海洋上的爆发性气旋生成事件，在经济和安全方面都代表着潜在的危险风暴。 主要研究人员希望提供有关改善此类风暴预测的最有希望的方法的见解。 ***

9318751 Sanders This is a collaborative project between Dr. Steven Mullen of the University of Arizona (ATM-9319411) and Dr. Frederick Sanders. The goal is to understand the impact of initial data uncertainty in short-range (1-2 day) and extended range (3-5 day) forecasts of explosive cyclogenesis. This will be accomplished through diagnostic studies and forecast experiments. Both a global spectral model and a limited-area mesoscale model will be used to produce model simulations of cyclone cases. Analyses of observed cases will be examined as well. In addition, the PIs plan to conduct Monte-Carlo ensemble forecasts to evaluate the efficacy of this technique in minimizing the negative impact of forecast variability. Explosive cyclogenesis events, whether over land or ocean, represent potentially dangerous storms in terms of both economics and safety. The principal investigators hope to provide insights into the most promising ways to improve the forecasts of such storms. ***