Research on Surface Map Analysis

该项目的目标是改进地面天气图分析，从而改进短期天气预报。目前业务气象界的做法依赖于挪威气旋模式。然而，许多这些分析表明锋面与模式所要求的显著水平温度对比无关。在目前的分析中确定的许多锋面似乎是在气旋风转移的基础上确定的。这样的特征最好表示为斜压槽，其相关云和降水与实际锋面相关的云和降水不同。这项研究将以从现有档案中选择的真实前线事件的研究为基础。本文将记录这些事件中锋面形成、演变和消散的天气环境。将进行前缘成因计算。这些结果将相互比较，并与每一事件在一系列地图上观察到的温度梯度变化进行比较。PI还将开始对亚利桑那州图森市明显且持续的风向日变化进行初步调查——夜间为东南，白天为西北。这种变化被观察到就像陆风和海风一样一致。这种流动结构似乎是由于城市西北部的小山脉和东南部干燥的高架高原之间的水平表面特征的差异。将研究导致这种流动结构的物理过程。这项研究的成功完成可能对业务预报员有潜在的价值，并为气象课程和教科书找到方法。

The goal of this project is to improve surface weather map analysis and, thus, short-term weather forecasting. Present practice by the operational meteorological community relies on the Norwegian Cyclone Model. Many of these analyses, however, demark fronts not associated with significant horizontal temperature contrast as required by the model. Many fronts identified in current analyses appear to be determined on the basis of a cyclonic wind shift. Such features are better denoted as baroclinic troughs with the associated clouds and precipitation that differ from those associated with actual fronts.The research will be based on study of episodes of real fronts selected from an existing archive. The synoptic circumstances for the formation, evolution and dissipation of fronts in these episodes will be documented. Frontogenetical calculations will be made. The results will be compared with each other and with the observed change in the temperature gradient on a series of maps for each episode.The PI also will begin a preliminary investigation into a pronounced and consistent diurnal change of wind direction at Tucson, Arizona - southeasterly at night and northwesterly during the daytime. This variation has been observed to be as consistent as land and sea breezes. This flow structure appears to be due to the differential horizontal surface characteristics between a small mountain range to the northwest of the city and a dry elevated plateau to the southeast. The physical processes responsible for this flow structure will be investigated. Successful completion of this research can potentially be of value to operational forecasters as well as finding its way into meteorological courses and text books.