Ensemble Forecasting of Explosive Cyclogenesis

小行星9712925 该项目代表了亚利桑那大学Sanders博士和马伦博士之间的合作努力（ATM-9714397）。 它涉及调查的影响，初始数据的不确定性和模式误差，集合预报技术的有用性，中期（3-5天）预测的爆发性气旋。 主要研究人员正在使用NCAR社区气候模式（CCM 2）的长期气候模拟领域，以及在大西洋快速增强气旋实验（埃里卡）项目期间观察到的爆炸性气旋生成的经典案例的分析和业务预测。 需要探讨的关键问题包括初始扰动的设计、集合预报的最低成员数和集合预报所需的最低分辨率。 这项研究的结果可能对业务天气预报有巨大的实际好处。

9712925 Sanders This project represents a collaborative effort between Dr. Sanders and Dr. Mullen of the University of Arizona (ATM-9714397). It involves an investigation of the impact of initial data uncertainty and model error on, and the usefulness of ensemble forecasting techniques for, medium range (3-5 day) prediction of explosive cyclogenesis. The principals investigators are employing fields from a long-term climate simulation with NCAR's Community Climate Model (CCM2) as well as analyses and operational forecasts of a classic case of explosive cyclogenesis which was observed during the Experiment on Rapidly Intensifying Cyclones over the Atlantic (ERICA) project. Critical issues to be explored include the design of initial perturbations, the minimum number of members for the ensemble and the minimum resolution required for ensemble forecast purposes. The results of this research could be of enormous practical benefit to operational weather forecasting.