Collaborative Research: Predictability of Explosive Cyclogenesis

合作研究：爆炸旋流发生的可预测性

• 批准号: 9319411
• 负责人: Steven Mullen
• 金额: $ 17.44万
• 依托单位: University of Arizona
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 1994
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1994-04-15 至 1998-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9319411&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Predictability; Explosive; Cyclogenesis

9319411 Mullen This is a collaborative project between Dr. Steven Mullen of the University of Arizona and Dr. Frederick Sanders (ATM-9318751). The goal is to understand the impact of initial data uncertainty in short-range (1-2 day) and extended range (3-5 day) forecasts of explosive cyclogenesis. This will be accomplished through diagnostic studies and forecast experiments. Both a global spectral model and a limited-area mesoscale model will be used to produce model simulations of cyclone cases. Analyses of observed cases will be examined as well. In addition, the PIs plan to conduct Monte-Carlo ensemble forecasts to evaluate the efficacy of this technique in minimizing the negative impact of forecast variability. Explosive cyclogenesis events, whether over land or ocean, represent potentially dangerous storms in terms of both economics and safety. The principal investigators hope to provide insights into the most promising ways to improve the forecasts of such storms. ***

9319411 Mullen 这是亚利桑那大学的 Steven Mullen 博士和 Frederick Sanders 博士 (ATM-9318751) 之间的合作项目。 目标是了解初始数据不确定性对爆炸性气旋发生的短期（1-2 天）和扩展范围（3-5 天）预测的影响。 这将通过诊断研究和预测实验来完成。 全球光谱模型和有限区域中尺度模型都将用于产生气旋情况的模型模拟。 还将对观察到的案例进行分析。 此外，PI 计划进行蒙特卡罗集合预报，以评估该技术在最大限度地减少预报变异性负面影响方面的功效。 无论是在陆地还是海洋上，爆炸性气旋事件在经济和安全方面都代表着潜在的危险风暴。 主要研究人员希望提供有关改善此类风暴预报的最有希望的方法的见解。 ***