Numerical Simulation of Rapid Oceanic Cyclogenesis

业务数值预报模式往往低估了快速发展的海洋气旋的加深速度和强度。使用国家大气研究中心的全球光谱模型，首席研究员S·L·马伦博士将通过改变模型中包含的物理参数、降低初始条件的精度以及改变模型分辨率来进行敏感性实验。该项目的结果应能说明以前关于爆炸性气旋发生的研究结果的统计意义，这些研究大多只涉及一场风暴或数值模拟的一个特定方面。

Operational numerical forecast models tend to underforecast the deepening rate and the intensity of rapidly developing marine cyclones. Using the global spectral model of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, the principal investigator, Dr. S. L. Mullen, will conduct sensitivity experiments by varying the physics included in the model, degrading the accuracy of the initial conditions, and changing the model resolution. The results from this project should inform on the statistical significance of the results from previous studies of explosive cyclogenesis which mostly dealt with only one storm or one particular aspect of the numerical simulation.