Predictability of Blocking and Explosive Cyclogenesis

本项目的总体目标是确定 时间尺度上大尺度大气模式的可预报性 一到两周，迅速发展的中纬度风暴 一到两天的时间尺度。 预测误差的来源 使用数值模型的这些现象可以来自模型 或在开始时使用的初始数据中的错误 预测。 这项研究将试图区分 在两者之间，检查快速发展的风暴的情况， （爆发性气旋）和持续的高压时期 振幅大气波模式被称为大气块。 这项工作是在一个 以前的赠款。 首席研究员将聘请一个更 更复杂更完整的大气环流模型 比他以前使用的模型。 这项研究最终将有助于更好地 了解大气动力学和改善短期和 中期天气预报

The overall goal of this project is to determine the predictability of large-scale atmospheric patterns on timescales of one to two weeks and rapidly developing midlatitude storms on timescales of one to two days. Sources of error in predicting these phenomena using numerical models can come from the model itself or from errors in the initial data used at the start of the prediction. This research will attempt to distinguish between the two, examining cases of rapidly developing storms (explosive cyclogenesis) and persistent periods of high amplitude atmospheric wave patterns known as atmospheric blocks. The work represents a continuation of research begun under a previous grant. The principal investigator will employ a more sophisticated and more complete version of a general circulation model than he used previously. This research ultimately should contribute to a better understanding of atmospheric dynamics and to improving short and medium range weather prediction.