Predictability of Blocking and Explosive Cyclogenesis

该项目的总体目标是在一到两周的时间尺度上确定大尺度大气模式的可预测性，并在一到两天的时间尺度上确定快速发展的中纬度风暴。使用数值模型预测这些现象的误差来源可能来自模型本身，也可能来自预测开始时使用的初始数据的误差。这项研究将试图区分这两者，研究快速发展的风暴（爆炸性气旋形成）和被称为大气块的高振幅大气波模式的持续周期。这项工作是在以前的资助下开始的研究的继续。首席研究员将采用比他以前使用的更复杂、更完整的总循环模型。这项研究最终将有助于更好地了解大气动力学，并改善中短期天气预报。

The overall goal of this project is to determine the predictability of large-scale atmospheric patterns on timescales of one to two weeks and rapidly developing midlatitude storms on timescales of one to two days. Sources of error in predicting these phenomena using numerical models can come from the model itself or from errors in the initial data used at the start of the prediction. This research will attempt to distinguish between the two, examining cases of rapidly developing storms (explosive cyclogenesis) and persistent periods of high amplitude atmospheric wave patterns known as atmospheric blocks. The work represents a continuation of research begun under a previous grant. The principal investigator will employ a more sophisticated and more complete version of a general circulation model than he used previously. This research ultimately should contribute to a better understanding of atmospheric dynamics and to improving short and medium range weather prediction.