Predictability of Blocking and Explosive Cyclogenesis

该项目的总体目标是确定一至两周时间尺度上的大尺度大气模式和一至两天时间尺度上迅速发展的中纬度风暴的可预测性。使用数值模型预测这些现象的误差来源可能来自模型本身，也可能来自预测开始时使用的初始数据中的误差。这项研究将试图区分这两种情况，考察快速发展的风暴(爆炸性气旋生成)和被称为大气层块的高幅度大气波型的持续周期。这项工作代表了在之前的拨款下开始的研究的继续。首席调查员将采用比他以前使用的更复杂、更完整的大气环流模式。这项研究最终应有助于更好地了解大气动力学和改进中短期天气预报。

The overall goal of this project is to determine the predictability of large-scale atmospheric patterns on timescales of one to two weeks and rapidly developing midlatitude storms on timescales of one to two days. Sources of error in predicting these phenomena using numerical models can come from the model itself or from errors in the initial data used at the start of the prediction. This research will attempt to distinguish between the two, examining cases of rapidly developing storms (explosive cyclogenesis) and persistent periods of high amplitude atmospheric wave patterns known as atmospheric blocks. The work represents a continuation of research begun under a previous grant. The principal investigator will employ a more sophisticated and more complete version of a general circulation model than he used previously. This research ultimately should contribute to a better understanding of atmospheric dynamics and to improving short and medium range weather prediction.