Inference Under Constraints of Limited Time and Knowledge: A Brunswikian View

有限时间和知识约束下的推理：布伦瑞克观点

• 批准号: 9320797
• 负责人: Gerd Gigerenzer
• 金额: $ 10万
• 依托单位: University of Chicago
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1994
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1994-04-01 至 1995-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9320797&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Inference; Under; Constraints; Limited; Time

Abstract The PI seeks to test his theory of "probabilistic mental models" (PMMs). The model itself states that people use probabilistic cue relationships in the natural environment to draw inferences about unknown cues. There are three main areas to which this model will be applied: the hindsight bias, overconfidence, and the Hume-Hartley Effect. The latter is manifested in an increase in a statement's apparent validity as it is repeated. In addition, the PI proposes to develop computer simulations to test some of the implications of the model. ! ! ! F 1 1 ( Times New Roman Symbol & Arial m m m " h % % D abstract of gigerenzer proposal Hal Arkes Hal Arkes

摘要PI试图检验他的“概率心理模型”(PMM)理论。该模型本身指出，人们在自然环境中使用概率线索关系来推断未知线索。该模型将应用于三个主要领域：事后诸葛亮、过度自信和休谟-哈特利效应。后者表现为随着陈述的重复，陈述的表观有效性增加。此外，PI建议开发计算机模拟来测试该模型的一些含义。！！！F 1 1(Times New Roman符号&amp；Arial m“h%%D Gierenzer Proposal Hal Arkes Hal Arkes