Hurricane Dynamics

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Dr. Schubert will pursue four areas of inquiry regarding tropical cyclones. First, many aspects of hurricane dynamics are poorly understood, including spiral bands, polygonal eyewalls, and the oscillatory or looping paths hurricanes take. An attempt will be made to develop a unified dynamical understanding of these phenomena using simple theoretical models and numerical simulation. A second intriguing problem involves the phenomenon of twin tropical cyclones. These paired storms occur exclusively in the west Pacific and Indian Oceans and play a role in the dynamics of El Nino. These systems will be investigated in a series of modeling studies. Another interesting phenomenon which has been observed primarily from satellite observations is the development of undulations in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) cloud patterns and the subsequent formation of one or more tropical cyclones, depending on the degree of curvature. Dr. Schubert will study the cyclone formation processes within the ITCZ in a series of modeling studies. In all of the modeling studies, he intends to investigate the role of moist physics. Finally, the recent development by the principal investigator of a new coordinate system based on vorticity for use in models opens the possibility of formulating a three dimensional nonlinear balanced theory for vortices. Dr. Schubert will also pursue this possibility. All four topics represent important research problems that are critical to improving understanding of the formation and behavior of tropical cyclones. ***