The Dynamics of Hurricanes

该项目支持的研究人员将应用理论、数值模型和对现有观测结果的分析相结合的方法，以促进对飓风动力学的一些关键方面的理解。研究人员认为，对基本大气动力学的基本理解主要来自平衡模式和潜在涡度动力学的研究。这项建议中的方法将是在理论和数值工作中发展的基本动力学概念的指导下检查数据。这项工作的学术价值将通过对一些具体专题的协调检查来体现，这些专题包括：(1)暖环热力结构；(2)平衡的风场和质量场及其与眼壁坡度的关系；(3)增强率对眼壁位置的高度敏感(作为相对于惯性稳定度最高的区域的非绝热热源)；(4)飓风边界层中强烈的径向流入产生的Burger激波结构；(5)飓风上方的平流层低层结构；以及(6)Saffir-Simpson尺度的不足。将通过培训研究生、增加应用数学和大气动力学社区之间的互动以及为应用和探索简化的动力学原理开发用户友好的软件而产生更广泛的影响，这些软件将免费提供给其他研究人员。这项研究还将解决一个重要的问题，即。需要更好地了解和预测导致飓风强度迅速变化和由此产生的社会影响的机制。

Researchers supported under this project will apply a combination of theory, numerical models, and analysis of existing observations to advance understanding of a number of key aspects of hurricane dynamics. The investigators contend that fundamental understanding of underlying atmospheric dynamics has come primarily from studies with balanced models and potential vorticity dynamics. The approach in this proposal will be to examine data with guidance from the basic dynamical concepts developed in theoretical and numerical work. The intellectual merit of this work will come through coordinated examination of a number of specific topics that include: (1) Warm ring thermal structure; (2) balanced wind and mass fields and their relation to eyewall slope; (3) hypersensitivity of intensification rates to eyewall position (as a diabatic heating source relative to the zone of highest inertial stability); (4) Burger's shock structures produced by strong radial inflow in the hurricane boundary layer; (5) lower-stratospheric structure above a hurricane; and (6) inadequacies of the Saffir-Simpson scale. Broader impacts will accrue through training of graduate students, increased interaction between applied mathematics and atmospheric dynamics communities, and the development of user-friendly software for application and exploration simplified dynamical principles that will be made freely available to other researchers. This research will also address a significant issue, viz. the need for improved physical understanding and forecasts of mechanisms leading to rapid changes in the intensity and resulting societal impacts of hurricanes.