The Behavior of States in Recurring Crises: Bargaining and Learning

小行星9422561 该项目将调查在二战后时期反复发生军事化危机的四对民族国家：美国和苏联，印度和巴基斯坦，以色列和埃及，以及以色列和叙利亚。 1945年至1980年期间发生的18场战争中有8场是由这些对抗引起的，另外还有3次核对抗。 调查将试图发现，从一次危机到下一次危机，影响力战略和战术是否发生了重大变化。 来自战争项目行为相关性的事件数据以及参与国的属性，它们与竞争对手的关系，以及国际体系和区域子系统的结构将为这项研究提供信息。 它将确定是否从以前与同一对手的经历中吸取了经验教训，以及在何种条件下进行或多或少有效的危机管理。 更好地理解决策者从经验中吸取的“教训”，可能会为更有效地管理未来军事化危机迈出重要一步。 ***

9422561 Leng This project will investigate four pairs of nation-states which have been engaged in recurring militarized crises in the Post WW II era: the United States and the Soviet Union, India and Pakistan, Israel and Egypt, and Israel and Syria. these rivalries account for eight of the eighteen wars that occurred between 1945 and 1980, as well as three nuclear confrontations. The investigation will attempt to discover whether significant changes in influence strategies and tactics are employed from one crisis to the next. Event data from the Behavioral Correlates of war project as well as attributes of participant states, their relationship with rival states, and the structure of the international system and regional subsystem will inform the study. It will identify whether lessons are learned from preceding experiences with the same adversary, and the conditions under which more or less effective crisis management evolves. A better understanding of the "lessons" that policy makers draw from experience may provide an important step toward more effective means of managing future militarized crises. ***