Causal Inference Applied to Income Effects

因果推理应用于收入效应

• 批准号: 9423018
• 负责人: Donald Rubin
• 金额: $ 11.08万
• 依托单位: Harvard University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1995
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1995-10-01 至 1998-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9423018&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Causal; Inference; Applied; Income; Effects

The objective of this project is to measure validly the treatment effects of giving additional income to low and middle income families. The study uses the Massachusetts State Lottery as a natural experiment in which some families are randomly assigned additional income and some are not. In the study, there is a treatment group of 400 people who won the lottery and a control group of 400 people who played but did not win. The subjects will be surveyed my mail and by phone. The use of this natural experiment will allow the researchers to make valid inferences about the effects of additional income on these families using a rigorous definition of causality. The people in the treatment group are receiving an average of $25,000 to $50,000 after taxes per year for 20 years. The survey questions cover such topics as labor supply, children's education, divorce and marriage patterns, residential choice, and savings behavior. The data from the surveys will be linked to earnings records from the Social Security Administration. This project should greatly enhance researchers' and policy makers' understanding of how additional income can affect people's lives. The data collected will be of great interest to applied economists, other social scientists, and policy makers.

本项目的目的是有效地衡量给予中低收入家庭额外收入的治疗效果。这项研究使用马萨诸塞州彩票作为一个自然的实验，在这个实验中，一些家庭被随机分配额外的收入，而另一些家庭则没有。在这项研究中，有一组400人中了彩票，另一组400人玩了但没有中奖。受试者将通过邮件和电话进行调查。这一自然实验的使用将使研究人员能够使用严格的因果关系定义，对额外收入对这些家庭的影响做出有效的推断。治疗组的患者在20年的税后平均每年获得25,000至50,000美元的收入。调查问题涵盖了劳动力供应、子女教育、离婚和婚姻模式、居住选择和储蓄行为等主题。调查数据将与社会保障管理局的收入记录联系起来。这个项目应该会极大地提高研究人员和政策制定者对额外收入如何影响人们生活的理解。收集的数据将引起应用经济学家、其他社会科学家和政策制定者的极大兴趣。