Integrated Hydrologic Analysis for Flood Forecasting and Control

[9501958]巴罗斯将为洪水预报和控制发展新的数学模型，这些模型将适应水文数据的非平稳性，并将综合产生洪水事件的地貌、水力和水文过程之间的相互作用。该项目的目标是：通过解析极端风暴的地形成分来改进对可能最大降水（PMP）的估计；建立一种新的估计标准设计风暴的方法；建立广义极端洪旱预报指标；将基于物理的降水模式与美国工程兵团目前正在开发的地表和地下水文模式框架结合起来；并通过调查地貌与水文、河流形态与水力学、土地利用变化、地貌与水文之间的因果反馈关系，研究基本景观动力学。该项目的教育部分包括工程水文学教学的课程改革计划，旨在逐步将研究阶段发展的新概念和新兴的先进计算机技术纳入课堂。＊＊＊

9501958 Barros New mathematical models will be developed for flood forecasting and control which will accommodate the non- stationarity in the hydrologic data and will integrate the interactions between geomorphic, hydraulic and hydrologic processes of flood-producing events. The objectives of the project are: to improve the estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) by resolving the orographic component of extreme storms; to create a novel method for estimating standard design storms; to establish generalized extreme flood forecast and drought forecast indices; to couple a physically-based precipitation model to a framework of surface and subsurface hydrology models currently in development by the United States Corps of Engineers; and to examine basic landscape dynamics by investigating the cause effect-feedback relationships between geomorphology and hydrology, between river morphology and hydraulics, and between land-use changes, geomorphology and hydrology. The educationally component of the project consists of a course renovation plan for teaching Engineering Hydrology aiming at the progressive inclusion in the classroom of the new concepts developed in the research phase and of emerging advanced computer technologies. ***