The Sustainability of Democracy: The Experience of Latin America, 1945-1994

民主的可持续性：拉丁美洲的经验，1945-1994

• 批准号: 9511509
• 负责人: Karen Remmer
• 金额: $ 4.5万
• 依托单位: University of New Mexico
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1995
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1995-07-15 至 1996-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9511509&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Sustainability; Democracy; Experience; Latin; America

9511509 Remmer By focusing upon the relationship between institutional arrangements and regime sustainability, this project is designed to bridge the gap separating older macrosocial understanding of political democracy from more contemporary work stressing indeterminacy, conjunctural conditions, and contingent choice. This study reevaluates the conventional wisdom concerning the dependence of democratic stability upon economic performance and test a theoretical alternative that takes into account the differential strengths and weaknesses of political democracy and authoritarianism as well as institutional variations among democratic regimes. The overarching conception is that institutions matter as contextual determinants of behavior mediating between systemic and structural forces, on the one hand, and individual political actors on the other. The project involves three major components. First the research entails the development and analysis of a data base on political institutions, electoral outcomes, and economic performance in Latin America for the period 1945-1994, which will be shared with other interested researchers. Second, the study elaborates and tests a set of cross-sectional regression models linking regime durability with three major sets of variables: international political context, domestic economic performance, and political institutions. The models will address outstanding questions regarding the relative fragility of authoritarian and democratic political orders and establish a basis for estimating the relative contribution of economic and institutional forces to the sustainability of political democracy. Third, the research utilizes survival analysis to explore the ways in which fluctuation in international conditions, economic performance, and changes in the rules of the political game over the lifetimes of individual regimes have shaped the risk of regime breakdown. The results of this research address the long-standing theo retical debate over the breakdown and consolidation of political democracy as well as issues of relevance to the policy community concerned with the contemporary political dynamics of Eastern Europe and Latin America. ***

小行星9511509 通过关注制度安排和政权可持续性之间的关系，本项目旨在弥合差距，将对政治民主的旧宏观社会理解与强调不确定性、结合条件和偶然选择的当代工作分开。 本研究重新评估了传统的智慧，民主的稳定性依赖于经济表现和测试的理论选择，考虑到不同的优势和劣势的政治民主和威权主义，以及民主政权之间的制度差异。 总体概念是，制度作为行为的背景决定因素，一方面在系统性和结构性力量之间进行调解，另一方面在个人政治行为者之间进行调解。 该项目包括三个主要组成部分。 首先，这项研究需要发展和分析一个关于1945-1994年期间拉丁美洲政治机构、选举结果和经济业绩的数据库，这将与其他感兴趣的研究人员分享。 其次，本研究阐述并测试了一组横截面回归模型，将政权持久性与三组主要变量联系起来：国际政治背景、国内经济表现和政治制度。 这些模型将解决有关专制和民主政治秩序相对脆弱性的未决问题，并为估计经济和体制力量对政治民主可持续性的相对贡献奠定基础。 第三，本研究利用生存分析来探讨国际条件的波动、经济表现和政治游戏规则在各个政权的生命周期中的变化如何塑造了政权崩溃的风险。 这项研究的结果解决了长期存在的理论辩论的崩溃和巩固的政治民主，以及相关的问题，以关心东欧和拉丁美洲的当代政治动态的政策界。 ***