CAREER: Consideration of Alternative Hypotheses in Judgment Under Uncertainty

不确定性判断中替代假设的考虑考虑一个病人患有疾病A或她患有疾病B的情况 f有两个相互排斥和详尽的假设。 假设有疾病A的证据（例如，然后，医生可能会考虑，或被问到，知道这个结果使他或她对疾病A是问题有多大的信心。 思考如何回答这个问题的一种方法是比较证据如何反映疾病A和疾病B。 另一种方法是考虑证据如何反映A而不是A（忽略B或只考虑证据如何反映B而不是B）。 如何在心理上表现相互竞争的备选假设（作为依赖或独立）将明显影响信心的评估。 这个职业生涯的建议，涉及进行一些实验，以： 进一步完善和充实的想法，假设检验的方式是框架的影响评估的信心扩展应用这个理论的假设检验，以解释其他明显的异常判断扩展模型的假设检验，以两个以上的选择。

Consideration of Alternative Hypotheses in Judgments Under Uncertainty Consider a situation where a patient has illness A or she has illness B f there are two mutually exclusive and exhaustive hypotheses. Given some evidence for illness A (e.g., a test result) a physician might then consider, or be asked, how confident knowing this result makes him or her that illness A is the problem. One way to think about how to respond to this question is to compare how the evidence reflects on illness A in comparison with illness B. An alternative is to consider how the evidence reflects on A versus against A (ignoring B or considering only how the evidence reflects on B versus not B). How competing alternative hypotheses are represented mentally (as dependent or independent) will clearly influence evaluations of confidence. This CAREER proposal, involves conducting a number of experiments to: Further refine and substantiate the idea that the way hypothesis testing is framed influences evaluated confidence Extend the application of this theory of hypothesis testing to explain other apparent anomalies in judgment Extend the model of hypothesis testing to more than two alternatives.