Dissertation Research: Predicting Extinction in Isolated Populations of (Ochotona princeps)

9520820名黑斯廷斯种群生物学家开发了人口增长模型，旨在预测分散的种群的命运，但这些模型尚未经过测试。这样的测试需要关于真实分散人口的原始条件和最终命运的数据。如果能够确定过去分散的一组种群，并且我们可以使用模型来预测每个种群是否应该在今天持续存在，则观察到的持久性和预测的持久性的比较可以确定模型的可靠性。根据化石证据，在上一个冰河时代(大约7500年前)结束时，在大盆地的山顶上分离出了一组至少14个种群的鼠兔(一种小型哺乳动物)。从那时起，这些种群中的一些已经灭绝。鼠兔生活在一个由冻融过程创造的栖息地。随着冰川的消退和雪线的上升，每条山脉内的鼠兔栖息地都变得支离破碎。这种动物生态的许多方面允许对这些种群最初分散时的状况进行合理的估计。因此，可以开发预测这些种群的持久性的模型。拟议的研究将收集开发这些模型所需的数据。将计算鼠兔栖息地碎片在每个山脉上的空间分布以及个体在栖息地碎片之间的移动。这些数据将应用于与当前保护中使用的模型类似的模型。自然景观因开发而变得支离破碎，往往对当地人口产生不利影响。为了规划与自然种群持久性相容的发展，我们必须能够可靠地预测各种生境碎片化模式下的种群持久性。

9520820 HASTINGS Population biologists have developed models of population growth that are designed to predict the fate of fragmented populations, but these models have not been tested. Such tests require data on the original conditions and the ultimate fates of real fragmented populations. If a set of populations that were fragmented in the past can be identified, and we can use models to predict whether each should be persisting today, a comparison of observed and predicted persistence can determine model reliability. According to fossil evidence, a set of at least 14 populations of pika (a small mammal) was isolated on mountaintops in the Great Basin at the end of the last ice age (about 7500 years ago). Since then, some of these populations have gone extinct. Pika live in a habitat created by freeze-thaw processes. With the retreat of the glaciers and the rising snowline, pika habitat within each mountain range was fragmented. Many aspects of this animal's ecology allow reasonable estimates of the condition of these populations when they were originally fragmented. Thus, models to predict the persistence of these populations can be developed. The proposed research will gather the data necessary to develop these models. The spatial distribution of pika habitat fragments on each mountain range and the movement of individuals between habitat fragments will be calculated. These data will be applied to models similar to those used in current conservation. Natural landscapes are being fragmented by development, often adversely affecting native populations. In order to plan development that it is compatible with the persistence of natural populations, we must be able to reliably predict population persistence under various patterns of habitat fragmentation.