Dissertation Research: Predicting Extinction in Isolated Populations of (Ochotona princeps)

论文研究：预测（Ochotona Princeps）孤立种群的灭绝

• 批准号: 9520820
• 负责人: Alan Hastings
• 金额: $ 0.34万
• 依托单位: University of California-Davis
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1995
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1995-09-01 至 1996-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9520820&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Dissertation; Research; Predicting; Extinction; Isolated

9520820 HASTINGS Population biologists have developed models of population growth that are designed to predict the fate of fragmented populations, but these models have not been tested. Such tests require data on the original conditions and the ultimate fates of real fragmented populations. If a set of populations that were fragmented in the past can be identified, and we can use models to predict whether each should be persisting today, a comparison of observed and predicted persistence can determine model reliability. According to fossil evidence, a set of at least 14 populations of pika (a small mammal) was isolated on mountaintops in the Great Basin at the end of the last ice age (about 7500 years ago). Since then, some of these populations have gone extinct. Pika live in a habitat created by freeze-thaw processes. With the retreat of the glaciers and the rising snowline, pika habitat within each mountain range was fragmented. Many aspects of this animal's ecology allow reasonable estimates of the condition of these populations when they were originally fragmented. Thus, models to predict the persistence of these populations can be developed. The proposed research will gather the data necessary to develop these models. The spatial distribution of pika habitat fragments on each mountain range and the movement of individuals between habitat fragments will be calculated. These data will be applied to models similar to those used in current conservation. Natural landscapes are being fragmented by development, often adversely affecting native populations. In order to plan development that it is compatible with the persistence of natural populations, we must be able to reliably predict population persistence under various patterns of habitat fragmentation.

9520820黑斯廷斯 种群生物学家已经开发了种群增长模型，旨在预测分散种群的命运，但这些模型尚未经过测试。 这些测试需要关于原始条件和真实的分散人口最终命运的数据。如果可以识别出过去分散的一组种群，并且我们可以使用模型来预测每个种群今天是否应该持续存在，那么观察到的和预测的持续性的比较可以确定模型的可靠性。 根据化石证据，在最后一个冰河时代结束时（大约7500年前），至少有14个种群的鼠兔（一种小型哺乳动物）被隔离在大盆地的山顶上。从那时起，其中一些种群已经灭绝。 鼠兔生活在一个由冻融过程创造的栖息地。随着冰川的消退和雪线的上升，每个山脉内的鼠兔栖息地都变得支离破碎。这种动物的生态学的许多方面允许合理估计这些种群最初被分割时的状况。因此，可以开发预测这些种群的持久性的模型。 拟议的研究将收集开发这些模型所需的数据。 将计算各山脉鼠兔栖息地片段的空间分布以及栖息地片段之间个体的移动。 这些数据将被应用到类似于目前保护所使用的模型。 自然景观因开发而支离破碎，往往对土著居民产生不利影响。为了规划发展，它是兼容的自然种群的持久性，我们必须能够可靠地预测种群的持久性下的各种模式的栖息地碎片化。