Dissertation Research: Predicting Extinction in Isolated Populations of (Ochotona princeps)

9520820黑斯廷斯种群生物学家已经建立了种群增长的模型，用来预测分散种群的命运，但是这些模型还没有经过检验。这样的测试需要有关原始条件和实际分散种群最终命运的数据。如果一组过去分散的种群可以被识别出来，并且我们可以使用模型来预测每个种群今天是否应该持续存在，那么观察到的持久性和预测的持久性的比较可以确定模型的可靠性。根据化石证据，在最后一个冰河时代结束时（大约7500年前），在大盆地的山顶上隔离了至少14个鼠兔（一种小型哺乳动物）种群。从那时起，其中一些种群已经灭绝。鼠兔生活在冻融过程形成的栖息地。随着冰川的退缩和雪线的上升，各山脉内鼠兔的栖息地变得支离破碎。从这种动物的生态的许多方面可以合理地估计这些种群最初分散时的状况。因此，可以建立模型来预测这些种群的持久性。拟议的研究将收集开发这些模型所需的数据。计算鼠兔在各山地生境碎片的空间分布和个体在生境碎片之间的迁移。这些数据将应用于类似于当前保护中使用的模型。自然景观因发展而支离破碎，往往对土著居民产生不利影响。为了规划与自然种群持续性相适应的发展，我们必须能够可靠地预测各种栖息地破碎化模式下的种群持续性。

9520820 HASTINGS Population biologists have developed models of population growth that are designed to predict the fate of fragmented populations, but these models have not been tested. Such tests require data on the original conditions and the ultimate fates of real fragmented populations. If a set of populations that were fragmented in the past can be identified, and we can use models to predict whether each should be persisting today, a comparison of observed and predicted persistence can determine model reliability. According to fossil evidence, a set of at least 14 populations of pika (a small mammal) was isolated on mountaintops in the Great Basin at the end of the last ice age (about 7500 years ago). Since then, some of these populations have gone extinct. Pika live in a habitat created by freeze-thaw processes. With the retreat of the glaciers and the rising snowline, pika habitat within each mountain range was fragmented. Many aspects of this animal's ecology allow reasonable estimates of the condition of these populations when they were originally fragmented. Thus, models to predict the persistence of these populations can be developed. The proposed research will gather the data necessary to develop these models. The spatial distribution of pika habitat fragments on each mountain range and the movement of individuals between habitat fragments will be calculated. These data will be applied to models similar to those used in current conservation. Natural landscapes are being fragmented by development, often adversely affecting native populations. In order to plan development that it is compatible with the persistence of natural populations, we must be able to reliably predict population persistence under various patterns of habitat fragmentation.