Integration of Assessment of Global Climate Change with Local Air Pollution Control

小行星9523616 大多数关于温室气体问题的政策分析没有考虑到当地空气污染控制对全球排放量的可能影响，也没有考虑到对替代性温室气体控制措施的成本评估的影响。 出现这种情况的部分原因是，气候科学和政策问题本身就是一个巨大的分析挑战;另一部分原因是，用于评估温室问题的许多分析模型只考虑到二氧化碳，或者使用二氧化碳作为涉及若干温室气体和气溶胶前体的更复杂系统的替代物。 在分析全球气候变化时，不考虑全球和地方人为排放之间的相互作用可能是一个严重的缺陷，因为环境政策的这两个方面有三个重要的联系：通过大气层的化学性质，通过排放控制技术，通过地方污染政策与温室气体控制措施之间的相互作用。 本研究将探索分析全球气候变化政策选择与当地空气污染控制可能发展之间相互作用的方法和模型，并将包括全球气候变化来源，政策和影响的评估。 将利用麻省理工学院综合框架和城市空气污染模型，开发和测试所需模型和数据的初步版本。 这一跨学科的任务将涉及五个主要问题：A。描述可能适用于产生排放活动的控制政策，以便纳入未来排放模型（例如，汽车中的NOx和CO控制）。 B。以与全球分析框架中更大区域的预测一致的方式对当地城市大都市的空气质量状况进行建模。 C.计算在国家/区域范围内有效的排放量，考虑到城市地区发生的部分排放的光化学老化，包括随着空气扩散到国家/区域范围内产生的二次污染物，如臭氧和酸性气溶胶。 D. 评估温室气体控制政策对当地空气质量的贡献，反之亦然，评估的方式可以纳入净政策成本的评估。 E. 预测当地排放控制的严格程度可能如何对经济增长的长期增长（以及当地条件的可能恶化）作出反应，以便这种反应可以包括在温室气体相关气体排放的长期预测中。 本建议侧重于这一方法发展的前三个步骤。 研究任务1涉及A点;任务2涉及开发处理B点的方法所需的研究;任务3涉及C点的映射。 在研究任务4中，将使用麻省理工学院的综合框架来测试这些关系，并将为排放控制政策的这些组成部分的综合方法的后续发展阶段制定一项计划。 任务1. 排放估算和控制功能。 任务2. 当地空气质量状况的表示任务3。 地方浓度和有效区域排放之间的映射。 任务4. MIT集成框架中的关系测试。 这项工作将在麻省理工学院全球变化科学与政策联合计划内进行。 共同首席研究员是教授亨利D。作者简介：Alberby和罗纳德G. Prinn，他们是该计划的联合主任。 担任共同研究员的还有Gregory麦克雷教授和Richard Eckaus教授。 四个人都是跨学科工作的一个或另一个方面的专家：Eckaus在排放预测方面，Colebby在排放预测和麻省理工学院框架的整合方面，Prinn在大气化学方面，麦克雷在当地空气污染建模方面。

9523616 Prinn Most policy analyses of the greenhouse gas issue do not consider the likely influence of local air pollution controls on global emissions, or on the evaluation of the cost of alternative greenhouse-gas control measures. This lack occurs in part because the coupled climate science and policy issue is a great analytical challenge by itself; it also occurs in part because many of the analytical models used for assessment of the greenhouse issue take account of CO2 only, or they use CO2 as a surrogate for the more complex system involving several greenhouse-relevant gases and aerosol precursors. Failure to consider the interaction between global and local aspects of anthropogenic emissions may prove to be a serious shortcoming in analyses of global climate change because these two aspects of environmental policy are linked in three important ways: through the chemistry of the atmosphere, through the technology of emissions control, and through the interaction of local pollution policies with greenhouse gas control measures. This research will explore methods and models for analyzing the interaction between policy choices regarding global climate change and likely developments in local air pollution control, and will include assessments of global climate change sources, policies, and impacts. Preliminary versions of the needed models and data will be developed and tested using the MIT Integrated Framework and MIT models of urban air pollution. This interdisciplinary task will deal with five main issues: A. Characterization, for inclusion in models of future emissions, of the control policies that may be applied to emissions-producing activities (e.g., Nox and CO control in automobiles). B. Modeling of air quality conditions in local urban metropoli in a way that is consistent with the prediction for larger regions in a global analysis framework. C. Calculation of the emissions that are effective at national/regional scale considering the photochemical aging that occurs to that portion of the emissions occurring in urban areas including the production of secondary pollutants like ozone and acid aerosols as the air is dispersed to national/regional scales. D. Valuation of the contributions of greenhouse gas control policies to local air quality and vice versa, in a way that can be integrated into assessments of net policy cost. E. Prediction of how the severity of local emissions control is likely to respond to increases over time in economic growth (and likely worsening of local conditions), so that this reaction can be included in long-term predictions of emissions of greenhouse-relevant gases. This proposal focuses on the first three steps in this methodological development. Research Task 1 is concerned with Point A; Task 2 involves research needed to develop methods for dealing with Point B; and Task 3 is concerned with the mapping in Point C. In research Task 4 these relationships will be tested using the MIT Integrated Framework and a plan will be prepared for subsequent stages of development of methods for integrating these components of emissions control policy. Task 1. Emissions Estimates and Control Functions. Task 2. Representation of Local Air Quality Conditions Task 3. Mapping Between Local Concentrations and Effective Regional Emissions. Task 4. Testing of Relations in the MIT Integrated Framework. The work will be carried out within the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change. The Co-Principal Investigators are Professors Henry D. Jacoby and Ronald G. Prinn, who are Co-Directors of the Program. Also serving as Co-Investigators are Professors Gregory McRae and Richard Eckaus. Each of the four are expert in one or another aspect of the interdisciplinapy work: Eckaus on the emissions forecasting, Jacoby on the emissions forecasts and integration of the MIT Framework, Prinn on the atmospheric chemistry, and McRae on the local air pollution modeling.