Integration of Assessment of Global Climate Change with Local Air Pollution Control

全球气候变化评估与当地大气污染防治相结合

• 批准号: 9523616
• 负责人: Ronald Prinn
• 金额: $ 31.03万
• 依托单位: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1995
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1995-09-15 至 1998-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9523616&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Integration; Assessment; Global; Climate; Change

9523616 Prinn Most policy analyses of the greenhouse gas issue do not consider the likely influence of local air pollution controls on global emissions, or on the evaluation of the cost of alternative greenhouse-gas control measures. This lack occurs in part because the coupled climate science and policy issue is a great analytical challenge by itself; it also occurs in part because many of the analytical models used for assessment of the greenhouse issue take account of CO2 only, or they use CO2 as a surrogate for the more complex system involving several greenhouse-relevant gases and aerosol precursors. Failure to consider the interaction between global and local aspects of anthropogenic emissions may prove to be a serious shortcoming in analyses of global climate change because these two aspects of environmental policy are linked in three important ways: through the chemistry of the atmosphere, through the technology of emissions control, and through the interaction of local pollution policies with greenhouse gas control measures. This research will explore methods and models for analyzing the interaction between policy choices regarding global climate change and likely developments in local air pollution control, and will include assessments of global climate change sources, policies, and impacts. Preliminary versions of the needed models and data will be developed and tested using the MIT Integrated Framework and MIT models of urban air pollution. This interdisciplinary task will deal with five main issues: A. Characterization, for inclusion in models of future emissions, of the control policies that may be applied to emissions-producing activities (e.g., Nox and CO control in automobiles). B. Modeling of air quality conditions in local urban metropoli in a way that is consistent with the prediction for larger regions in a global analysis framework. C. Calculation of the emissions that are effective at national/regional scale considering the photochemical aging that occurs to that portion of the emissions occurring in urban areas including the production of secondary pollutants like ozone and acid aerosols as the air is dispersed to national/regional scales. D. Valuation of the contributions of greenhouse gas control policies to local air quality and vice versa, in a way that can be integrated into assessments of net policy cost. E. Prediction of how the severity of local emissions control is likely to respond to increases over time in economic growth (and likely worsening of local conditions), so that this reaction can be included in long-term predictions of emissions of greenhouse-relevant gases. This proposal focuses on the first three steps in this methodological development. Research Task 1 is concerned with Point A; Task 2 involves research needed to develop methods for dealing with Point B; and Task 3 is concerned with the mapping in Point C. In research Task 4 these relationships will be tested using the MIT Integrated Framework and a plan will be prepared for subsequent stages of development of methods for integrating these components of emissions control policy. Task 1. Emissions Estimates and Control Functions. Task 2. Representation of Local Air Quality Conditions Task 3. Mapping Between Local Concentrations and Effective Regional Emissions. Task 4. Testing of Relations in the MIT Integrated Framework. The work will be carried out within the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change. The Co-Principal Investigators are Professors Henry D. Jacoby and Ronald G. Prinn, who are Co-Directors of the Program. Also serving as Co-Investigators are Professors Gregory McRae and Richard Eckaus. Each of the four are expert in one or another aspect of the interdisciplinapy work: Eckaus on the emissions forecasting, Jacoby on the emissions forecasts and integration of the MIT Framework, Prinn on the atmospheric chemistry, and McRae on the local air pollution modeling.

9523616 Prinn大多数关于温室气体问题的政策分析没有考虑地方空气污染控制对全球排放的可能影响，也没有考虑对替代温室气体控制措施成本的评估。这种缺乏的部分原因是气候科学和政策的耦合问题本身就是一个巨大的分析挑战；出现这种情况的部分原因还在于，用于评估温室问题的许多分析模型只考虑了二氧化碳，或者它们将二氧化碳作为更复杂的系统的替代品，该系统涉及几种与温室有关的气体和气溶胶前体。没有考虑到人为排放的全球方面和地方方面之间的相互作用，可能被证明是全球气候变化分析中的一个严重缺陷，因为环境政策的这两个方面以三种重要方式联系在一起：通过大气化学，通过排放控制技术，以及通过地方污染政策与温室气体控制措施的相互作用。本研究将探索分析全球气候变化政策选择与当地空气污染控制可能发展之间相互作用的方法和模型，并将包括对全球气候变化来源、政策和影响的评估。所需模型和数据的初步版本将使用麻省理工学院综合框架和麻省理工学院城市空气污染模型进行开发和测试。这项跨学科的任务将涉及五个主要问题：A.表征可能适用于产生排放活动的控制政策，以便纳入未来排放模型（例如，汽车中的氮氧化物和一氧化碳控制）。B.以一种与全球分析框架中对更大区域的预测相一致的方式对当地城市大都市的空气质量状况进行建模。C.考虑到发生在城市地区的那部分排放发生的光化学老化，包括空气扩散到国家/区域尺度时臭氧和酸性气溶胶等二次污染物的产生，计算在国家/区域尺度上有效的排放。D.评估温室气体控制政策对当地空气质量的贡献，反之亦然，其方式可纳入政策净成本的评估。E.预测当地控制排放的严厉程度如何可能对随着时间的推移而增加的经济增长（以及当地条件可能恶化的情况）作出反应，以便将这种反应纳入对温室气体相关气体排放的长期预测。本建议侧重于这一方法发展的前三个步骤。研究任务1与A点有关；任务2涉及研究开发处理B点的方法；在研究任务4中，这些关系将使用麻省理工学院综合框架进行测试，并将为整合排放控制政策的这些组成部分的方法的后续发展阶段准备一份计划。任务1。排放估算和控制功能。任务2。代表本地空气质素情况任务3局部浓度与有效区域排放之间的映射。任务4。麻省理工学院集成框架中的关系测试。这项工作将在麻省理工学院全球变化科学与政策联合项目中进行。联合首席研究员是Henry D. Jacoby教授和Ronald G. Prinn教授，他们是该项目的联合主任。Gregory McRae和Richard Eckaus教授也担任共同调查员。这四个人都是跨学科工作的一个或另一个方面的专家：埃考斯研究排放预测，雅各布研究排放预测和麻省理工学院框架的整合，Prinn研究大气化学，麦克雷研究当地空气污染模型。