BIOCOMPLEXITY: Feedbacks Between Ecosystems and the Climate System

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This project will characterize and quantify the feedback mechanisms among terrestrial ecosystems, the climatic system, and air pollution involving cycles of water, energy, and various chemical species. A coupled model that links dynamic terrestrial hydrology and ecology, physical climate (atmosphere and ocean), and atmospheric chemistry will be developed that also, and perhaps, uniquely, includes two-way linkages with land-use change and emissions prediction and policy. The model will be used to quantify the combined effects of air pollution and climate change on the productivity and distribution of vegetation globally. Recognizing the large uncertainties in various feedback processes, the principal investigators (PIs), Drs. Prinn and Melillo, will undertake a comprehensive analysis of the sensitivity of their conclusions, and provide probability distributions for the key model output variables. The PIs expect this research to provide significant information for understanding how our future global environment will evolve under the joint effects of growing world population, changing technological and agricultural practices, and economic development. This project is being supported through the Biocomplexity in the Environment: Coupled Biogeochemical Cycles Research Program.