IAI Workshop: Comparative Studies of Small Pelagic Fish and Climate Change (SPACC) in the Americas

9530213罗斯柴尔德这是一项提议，拟举办一次讲习班，以发展一个执行小型中上层鱼类和气候变化科学活动的联盟。研讨会将通过以下方式确定该联合体的职能：就全球海洋生态系统动力学(GLOBEC)空间中心计划达成共识，为GLOBEC/Spacc制定战略计划，确定完成与GLOBEC/Spacc相关的美洲全球变化研究所(IAI)任务所需的具体行动项目，制定战略，实现对GLOBEC/Spacc研究的更高水平的支持，并确定拟议的联合体将如何促进这些目标。美洲空间委员会的目标是查明控制小型中上层鱼类种群数量增长的物质力量之间的联系，并通过比较研究实现这一目标。长期目标是预测这些力量的模式和强度的变化，与温室气体增加和海气发动机的变化有关，如何改变小型中上层鱼类种群的生产力。小型中上层鱼类丰度的重大变化可能伴随着生态系统结构的显著变化。对浮游动物数据的研究表明，1972年秘鲁凤尾鱼的大崩溃可能与浮游动物种群的长期下降关系更大，而不是与厄尔尼诺现象和捕鱼有关。同样，北海鲱鱼数量的下降似乎与浮游植物和浮游动物两个标准差的下降有关。总之，目前的证据表明，小型中上层鱼类生产力的长期趋势是气候驱动的，并可能通过浮游动物来调节。目前尚不清楚这些过程是如何联系在一起的，也不知道如何预测海洋气候长期变化的影响。通过第二阶段提案，小型中上层鱼类在10-100年的时间尺度上大规模波动的机制问题将得到解决，IAI空间委员会可以在很大程度上协调美洲对这些专题往往分开进行的研究。尽管在相当长的时间尺度上集中于鱼(沙丁鱼、凤尾鱼)，但导致这些波动的机制在鱼类生活的整个生态系统中发挥作用，并被认为行动相当迅速。%这是一项提议，拟举办一次研讨会，以发展一个执行小型中上层鱼类和气候变化(SPACC)科学活动联盟。研讨会将通过以下方式确定该联盟的职能：就全球海洋生态系统动力学(GLOBEC)空间委员会核心方案达成共识，为全球海洋生态系统动力学/空间委员会制定战略计划，确定完成与全球海洋生态系统动力学/空间委员会有关的IAI任务所需的具体行动项目，制定战略以实现对全球海洋生态系统动力学/空间委员会研究的更高水平的支持，并确定拟议的联合体将如何促进这些目标。美洲空间委员会的目标是查明控制小型中上层鱼类种群数量增长的物质力量之间的联系，并通过比较研究实现这一目标。长期目标是预测这些力量的模式和强度的变化，与温室气体增加和海气发动机的变化有关，如何改变小型中上层鱼类种群的生产力。GLOBEC/SPACC有一个非洲-欧洲部分，侧重于欧洲和非洲的少量远洋种群，以及这一拟议的美洲部分。1995年底举行了一次欧洲-非洲空间方案执行规划会议。该讲习班是为美洲空间委员会举行的一次类似会议。美洲空间和非洲-欧洲空间委员会作为全球海洋生态系统的国际成员，有着共同的主题：确定物理力量和生物过程之间的联系；强调建立模型以解释多学科的观察结果；以及把浮游动物作为物理学和鱼类生产力之间的一个关键环节。成立一个美洲全球区域经济共同体/空间合作联盟将对协调在美洲的活动作出重大贡献。第一阶段讲习班的目标是完成前两次空间研委会会议期间开始的测量和建模系统的设计，并协调空间研委会研究人员在美洲的活动。方法是制定一套可供所有国家实施的衡量战略和模型的等级。美洲和非欧SPACC的独特贡献在于，它们将利用对小型中上层鱼类为主的生态系统的比较来推断鱼类、浮游动物和海洋物理学之间的因果联系，从而解决美洲全球变化研究所(IAI)科学议程主题“海洋、沿海和河口过程的比较研究”。以下国家将参与这项提议：阿根廷、巴西、智利、墨西哥、秘鲁和美国。这些国家是IAI的成员国，IAI是美国发起的一项倡议，旨在鼓励美洲科学机构就全球变化问题进行合作研究。美国国家科学基金会是被指定在IAI内履行美国职责的美国政府机构。***

9530213 Rothschild This is a proposal to hold a workshop to develop a consortium for implementing the Small Pelagic Fish and Climate Change (SPACC) scientific activities. The workshop will identify the functions of the consortium by: developing a consensus on the Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics (GLOBEC) SPACC core program, by preparing a strategic plan for GLOBEC/ SPACC and identifying specific action items that are required to achieve the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI) mission relevant to GLOBEC/SPACC, by developing a strategy for achieving new levels of support for GLOBEC/SPACC research, and by determining how the proposed consortium would contribute to these goals. The objective of the Inter-American SPACC is to identify linkages between the physical forces that control population growth of small pelagic fish populations and to achieve this through comparative studies. The long range goal is to forecast how changes in pattern and intensity of these forces, related to elevated greenhouse gases and changes in the air-sea engine, alter the productivity of small pelagic fish populations. Major changes in small pelagic fish abundance may be accompanied by marked changes in ecosystems structure. Examination of zooplankton data indicate that the great collapse of the Peruvian anchovy in 1972 may have been more strongly related to a long term decline in zooplankton stocks than to El Ni o and fishing. Similarly, the decline in North Sea herring stock appear to be linked with declines of two standard deviations in phytoplankton and zooplankton. In sum, present evidence indicated that long term trends in productivity of small pelagic fish are climate driven and may be mediated through zooplankton. What is not known is how these processes are linked nor how to predict the effect of long term changes in ocean climate. An IAI SPACC could do much to coordinate the often separated research on these topics in the Americas through a Phase II proposal which will address mech anisms responsible for large-scale fluctuations in small pelagic fish over time scales of 10-100 years. Although focused on the fish (sardines, anchovies) over fairly long time scales, the mechanisms responsible for these fluctuations act throughout the ecosystems within which the fish live and are thought to act fairly rapidly. %%% This is a proposal to hold a workshop to develop a consortium for implementing the Small Pelagic Fish and Climate Change (SPACC) scientific activities. The workshop will identify the functions of the consortium by: developing a consensus on the Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics (GLOBEC) SPACC core program, by preparing a strategic plan for GLOBEC/ SPACC, by identifying specific action items that are required to achieve the IAI mission relevant to GLOBEC/SPACC, by developing a strategy for achieving new levels of support for GLOBEC/SPACC research, and by determining how the proposed consortium would contribute to these goals. The objective of the Inter-American SPACC is to identify linkages between the physical forces that control population growth of small pelagic fish populations and to achieve this through comparative studies. The long range goal is to forecast how changes in pattern and intensity of these forces, related to elevated greenhouse gases and changes in the air-sea engine, alter the productivity of small pelagic fish populations. GLOBEC/SPACC has an Afro-European component that focuses on small pelagic populations of Europe and Africa and this proposed Inter-American component. An implementation planning meeting for Euro-African SPACC was held in late 1995. This workshop is for a similar meeting for the Inter-American SPACC. Inter-American and Afro-European SPACC, as members of international GLOBEC, share common themes: identifying linkages between physical forces and biological processes; an emphasis on modeling to interpret multi-disciplinary observations; and a focus on zooplankton as a key link between physics and fish productivity. The fo rmation of an Inter-American GLOBEC/SPACC consortium would be a significant contribution in coordinating activities in the Americas. The goal of the workshop in Phase I is to finish the design of the measurement and modeling systems which were begun during two previous SPACC meetings and coordinate the activities of SPACC researchers in the Americas. The approach is to develop a hierarchy of measurement strategies and models that could be implemented by all countries. The unique contribution of Inter-American and Afro-European SPACC is that they will use comparisons of ecosystems dominated by small pelagic fish to infer cause and effect linkages between fish, zooplankton and ocean physics, and thus addresses the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI) Science Agenda theme of "Comparative Studies of Oceanic, Coastal and Estuarine Processes." The following countries are participating in this proposal: Argentina; Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Peru, and the United States. These countries are Members States of the IAI, a U.S. initiative to stimulate cooperative research on global change issues among the scientific institutions of the Americas. The U.S. National Science Foundation is the U.S. Government agency designated to carry out U.S. responsibilities within the IAI. ***