Estimating the Economic Impact of Catastrophic Urban Earthquakes

9531997张1995年1月17日袭击日本神户的阪神大地震造成5,000多名居民死亡，造成超过1,000亿美元的损失。这场灾难的规模超过了美国现代史上的任何一次经验，是一个吸取与美国地震威胁相关的教训的机会。该项目将调查阪神地震经济影响的选定方面，以制定评估美国灾难性城市地震经济影响的方法框架。调查还将涉及与中等北岭和洛马普里塔灾难的比较，以说明美国和日本之间的相关差异。该项目将建立在调查人员正在进行的关于阪神地震的研究基础上。该项目侧重于两个问题，这两个问题在推断从中等城市灾害到重大城市灾害的经济影响方面可能特别重要：非线性效应和经济结构变化。***

9531997 Chang The Great Hanshin earthquake which struck Kobe, Japan on January 17, 1995 killed over 5,000 residents and caused over $100 billion in losses. The magnitude of this disaster exceeds any experience in the modern history of the U.S. and represents an opportunity to learn lessons relevant to the earthquake threat to this country. This project will investigate selected aspects of economic impact in the Hanshin earthquake in order to develop a methodological framework for estimating the economic impact of a catastrophic urban earthquake in the U.S. The investigation will also involve comparisons with the moderate Northridge and Loma Prieta disasters, accounting for relevant differences between the U.S. and Japan. The project will build on on-going research being carried out by the investigators on the Hanshin earthquake. The project focuses on two issues which may be especially important in extrapolating economic impact from moderate to major urban disasters: nonlinear effects and structural change in the economy. ***