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The short-term economic impact of Peru's internal conflict: A fixed effects two sector approach.

秘鲁内部冲突的短期经济影响：固定效应两部门方法。

基本信息

批准号：
2869120
负责人：
金额：
--
依托单位：
University College London
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Studentship
财政年份：
2023
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2023 至无数据
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2869120
关键词：
short term economic impact Peru

项目摘要

The recent period of very high inflation has called in to question the effectiveness of monetary policy (interest rate adjustments) for inflation targeting. It is increasingly recognised that important sources of inflation (e.g. rising energy prices) are outside of the central bank's jurisdiction. This thesis examines the case for a more prominent role for fiscal policy in achieving price stability, particularly the potential for the state's capacity to tax (and invest strategically in) critical industries associated with systemic price impacts such as energy and food staples. I will develop an empirical modelling framework suited for use by policy makers that will enable the identification of inflation sensitive industries and devise a metric of inflation risk that can be practically used to appraise fiscal policy proposals. The framework will be refined by evaluating it empirically on two distinct case studies. The first is a high-income economy with a sovereign currency and well-established macroeconomic policy regime (the UK). The second is a developing country (Peru) faced with different challenges given its weaker global currency and dependency on foreign imports. As well as working with datasets in these countries, I will conduct selected interviews with staff in state institutions concerned with price stability.

最近一段时期的高通胀让人们开始质疑货币政策（利率调整）以通胀为目标的有效性。人们越来越认识到，通胀的重要来源（如不断上涨的能源价格）不在央行的管辖范围之内。本文研究了财政政策在实现价格稳定方面发挥更重要作用的案例，特别是国家对与系统性价格影响相关的关键行业（如能源和主食）征税（和战略性投资）的能力的潜力。我将开发一个适合政策制定者使用的实证建模框架，使其能够识别通胀敏感行业，并设计一个通胀风险指标，可实际用于评估财政政策建议。该框架将通过对两个不同的案例研究进行经验评估来完善。第一个是拥有主权货币和完善宏观经济政策机制的高收入经济体（英国）。第二个是发展中国家（秘鲁），由于其较弱的全球货币和对外国进口的依赖，面临着不同的挑战。除了处理这些国家的数据集外，我还将与与价格稳定有关的国家机构的工作人员进行选择性访谈。