Monetary Policy and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism

货币政策和货币传导机制

• 批准号: 9601253
• 负责人: Lawrence Christiano
• 金额: $ 22.16万
• 依托单位: National Bureau of Economic Research Inc
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 1996
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1996-10-15 至 1999-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9601253&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Monetary; Policy; Transmission; Mechanism

The purpose of this research is to continue developing an empirically based, dynamic general equilibrium framework for analyzing monetary policy. This effort will have two basic components: to better understand the monetary policy making process itself, and to develop improved models of the links between monetary policy and the performance of the overall economy. The first component seeks to endogenize monetary policy by thinking of it as being determined by a purposeful policy maker who does not have the ability to commit to future actions. This project will investigate the possibility that the take-off of inflation in the 1970s reflects in part the kind of instability that can arise when monetary policy is conducted in the absence of commitment. An important objective of this proposal is to analyze alternative feasible institutional arrangements that could give rise to a more stable monetary policy. The second component of this project focuses on developing improved models of the economy. For an analysis of alternative monetary policy regimes to be persuasive, it must be built upon a sound model. One strand of the proposed research builds on the author's previous work developing a framework for integrating monetary and business cycle phenomena. Specifically, the project will explore various factors that can help account quantitatively for the observation that the price effects of monetary policy disturbances appear to be small, while the output effects are relatively larger. In a third strand of research the investigator will continue his work reconciling the salient characteristics of asset returns with macroeconomic models. This is important because virtually any view about the way money affects the economy assigns a central role to asset markets. The investigator will also explore the possibility that expectational shocks play an important role in the business cycle. Understanding what are the ultimate impulses to the business cycle is likely to be important in any assessment of alternative monetary policies. Finally, the investigator will use financial market data to obtain improved estimates of the exogenous component of monetary policy. Such measures play an important role in efforts to identify the channels by which money affects the economy.

本研究的目的是继续发展一个基于经验的、动态的一般均衡框架来分析货币政策。 这一努力将包括两个基本组成部分：更好地理解货币政策制定过程本身，以及开发货币政策与整体经济表现之间联系的改进模型。 第一个组成部分试图将货币政策内生化，认为它是由一个有目的的政策制定者决定的，而这个政策制定者没有能力承诺未来的行动。 本项目将调查1970年代通货膨胀的起飞是否部分反映了在缺乏承诺的情况下实施货币政策可能产生的不稳定性。 该建议的一个重要目标是分析可能导致更稳定货币政策的其他可行的制度安排。 该项目的第二个组成部分侧重于开发改进的经济模式。 要使对替代货币政策制度的分析具有说服力，就必须建立在一个健全的模型之上。 一股拟议的研究建立在作者以前的工作开发一个框架，整合货币和商业周期现象。 具体而言，货币政策的变动对价格的影响似乎很小，但对产出的影响相对较大，本课题将探讨有助于定量解释这一现象的各种因素。 在第三个研究方向中，研究者将继续他的工作，调和资产回报的显著特征与宏观经济模型。 这一点很重要，因为几乎任何关于货币影响经济的观点都将资产市场置于核心地位。 研究者还将探讨预期冲击在商业周期中发挥重要作用的可能性。 理解什么是商业周期的最终推动力，对于任何对替代货币政策的评估都很重要。 最后，研究者将使用金融市场数据来获得货币政策外生成分的改进估计。 这些措施在查明货币影响经济的渠道方面发挥着重要作用。