Spatial and Temporal Scales and Mechanisms of Extreme Precipitation Events over Central Europe (STAMMEX)

本项目主要研究极端降水变率的定量估计及其机制。我们的主要任务是通过高质量的观测估计中欧极端降水的长期变率，并确定观测到的变化的主要机制。我们将使用自1880年起覆盖德国的DWD网络的独特高密度雨量计每日观测资料。利用这些数据，我们将设计1880-2007年空间分辨率为0.05-0.2度的均匀网格化日数据集。在此基础上，我们将根据对日降水概率分布的分析，利用已知的和新开发的统计技术，开发一套极端降水统计数据。这将使我们能够获得中欧地区季节性和可能每月极端降水的长期变异性估计。然后将这些估计与气旋活动、气旋生命周期参数、大气水分输送和区域水分再循环联系起来。我们将量化大尺度环流条件和局部过程在极端降水长期变化中的作用，以建立德国不同季节极端降水的可预测性界限。该项目的成果将有助于改善季节性和更长期的极端天气预测，从而使德国能够更有效地进行风险评估和水资源管理。

This project is focused on the quantitative estimation and mechanisms of variability of extreme precipitation. Our main task is to estimate long-term variability of extreme precipitation over Central Europe from high quality observations and to identify the major mechanisms of the observed changes. We will use the unique high density rain gauge daily observations of the DWD network covering Germany for the period from 1880 onwards. Using these data we will design homogenized gridded daily data set with spatial resolutions of 0.05-0.2 degree for 1880-2007. On that basis we will develop an ensemble of extreme precipitation statistics using known and newly developed statistical techniques based on the analysis of probability distributions of daily precipitation. This will allow us to obtain estimates of long-term variability of seasonal and possibly monthly extreme precipitation over Central Europe. These estimates will then be associated with cyclone activity, cyclone life cycle parameters, atmospheric moisture transport and regional moisture recycling. We will quantify the role of large-scale circulation conditions and local processes in long-term variability of extreme precipitation in order to establish predictability limits of extreme precipitation for different seasons over Germany. The project results will contribute to the improvement of seasonal and longer scale prediction of extreme weather to enable a more effective risk assessment and water management in Germany.