Prediction of Pre-Landfall Intensity and Post-Landfall Precipitation in Hurricanes

9612485 Bosart美国天气研究计划（USWRP）是一项跨部门活动，旨在执行和实施必要的研究，以改善向全国提供的天气服务。根据该计划，美国国家科学基金会和国家海洋和大气管理局将共同评估和支持USWRP的高优先级研究。本研究的目的是了解控制两个困难的预报问题的机制：飓风登陆前的强度变化和登陆后产生的降水。这两个问题通常具有概念上的联系，因为飓风与中纬度现象（锋面和/或天气尺度移动槽）的相互作用可以在飓风登陆前突然增强，或在登陆后产生强降水。正是这些中纬度的相互作用将成为这项研究的重点。特别令人感兴趣的是(1)对流层上层槽与飓风相互作用的过程，目的是描述是什么决定了相互作用会增强还是减弱飓风；（ii）控制登陆后降水数量和分布的动力和热力学特征。除了增加对飓风登陆性质的基本了解外，这项工作的一个潜在结果将是识别热带气旋可能突然加深或局部洪水的共同特征，以便及时发出充分的警告。＊＊＊

9612485 Bosart The U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP) is an interagency activity designed to perform and implement the research necessary to improve the delivery of weather services to the nation. Under this Program, the National Science Foundation and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are jointly evaluating and supporting research of high priority to the USWRP. The objectives of this research are to understand the mechanisms controlling two difficult forecasting problems: intensity changes in hurricanes prior to landfall, and the precipitation they produce after landfall. These two problems often have a conceptual connection, in that interactions of the hurricane with middle latitude phenomena (fronts and/or synoptic scale mobile troughs) can produce sudden intensification of a hurricane prior to landfall, or heavy precipitation after landfall. It is these middle latitude interactions that will be the focus of this research. Of particular interest are (i) the processes by which upper tropospheric troughs interact with hurricanes, with the goal of describing what determines whether an interaction will intensify or weaken the hurricane; and (ii) the dynamic and thermodynamic characteristics that control the amount and distribution of precipitation after landfall. In addition to increased fundamental understanding of the nature of landfalling hurricanes, a potential outcome of the work will be an identification of common signatures of the potential for sudden deepening or localized flooding by tropical cyclones in time to give adequate warnings. ***