North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Genesis Pathways

该奖项是根据2009年《美国复苏和再投资法案》(公法111-5)资助的。该项目将利用目前计划于2010年8月和9月进行的热带云系萧条前调查(FOREST)现场试验所提供的机会，调查北大西洋热带气旋(TCS)的前期生成和成因。这项拟议的工作是由先前的研究推动的，这些研究确定了六条不同的客观定义的北大西洋热带气旋发生途径。项目任务将是：(I)为识别的六条成因路径中的每一条构建近期北大西洋TC季节的TC气候学(不只是TC病例，因为零事件很重要，并且将超过TC发展)；(Ii)根据最近北大西洋TC季节的分析，开发用于预测和确定哪些成因参数对于依赖于成因路径的TC发展很重要的诊断参数；(Iii)在预测前和预测中对TC发生/无效事件进行详细的诊断分析，以识别依赖于成因路径的控制物理关系；(Iv)使用集合卡尔曼滤波(EnKF)技术创建成因路径综合分析集合，以突出路径依赖的环境特征和动态重要特征和关系；以及(V)在预测过程中对原型TC事件进行高分辨率模拟研究，以评估路径依赖模型的敏感性。在更广泛的影响标准方面，预期的科学认识进展将转化为对北方TC成因的中短期预报的改进；有助于本项目支持的两名研究生的专业研究培训和进修；并丰富和加强PI及其同事在天气动力学和热带气象学领域的教学和学术研究。

This award is funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-5).This project will use the opportunity afforded by the PRE-Depression Investigation of Cloud-systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) field experiment, currently planned for August and September 2010, to investigate the pre-genesis and genesis of North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs). The proposed work is motivated by previous research that identified six distinct objectively defined North Atlantic TC genesis pathways. A distinctive aspect of the proposed research is that TC genesis/null events will be stratified by the six previously identified genesis pathways and analyzed over several complete TC seasons to facilitate uncovering distinctive pathway-dependent dynamical signatures.The project tasks will be: (i) construct a TC climatology over recent North Atlantic TC seasons (not justTC cases since null events are important and will outnumber TC developments) for each of the identified six genesis pathways;(ii) develop a diagnostic parameter indicating the preferred genesis pathway in a region from analysis of recent North Atlantic TC seasons for use during PREDICT and establish which genesis parameters are important for TC development depending on genesis path;(iii) perform detailed diagnostic analyses of TC genesis/null events prior to and during PREDICT to identify genesis pathway-dependent governing physical relationships;(iv) create genesis pathway composite analysis ensembles using ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) techniques to highlight pathway-dependent environmental signatures and dynamically important features and relationships; and (v) conduct high-resolution modeling studies of archetype TC events during PREDICT to evaluate pathway-dependent model sensitivity.With respect to the intellectual-merit criterion, the research will advance scientific understanding by isolating the various environmental and dynamical factors that control TC development along individual genesis pathways; establishing the governing dynamical and thermodynamical processes applicable to the individual TC genesis pathways; and increasing our understanding of the physical mechanisms that control TC predictability and error growth along different genesis pathways.With respect to the broader impact criterion, the anticipated advances in scientific understanding will translate into improved medium- and short-range forecasts of TC genesis over the North; contribute to the specialized research training and advanced education of the two graduate students to be supported by this project; and enrich and enhance the teaching and scholarship of the PI and his colleagues in the areas of synoptic-dynamic and tropical meteorology.