North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Genesis Pathways

该奖项是根据2009年美国复苏和再投资法案（公法111-5）资助的。该项目将利用目前计划于2010年8月和9月进行的热带云系统前低气压调查（PREDICT）现场实验提供的机会，调查北大西洋热带气旋（tc）的前形成和形成过程。先前的研究确定了六种不同的客观定义的北大西洋TC发生途径，这一研究提出了这项工作的动机。该研究的一个独特之处在于，将根据先前确定的六种发生途径对TC发生/无效事件进行分层，并在几个完整的TC季节中进行分析，以促进发现独特的通路依赖的动力学特征。该项目的任务将是：(i)构建最近北大西洋高温季节的高温气候学（不只是高温病例，因为零事件很重要，并且将超过高温发展），为每一个确定的六种发生途径；（ii）通过分析北大西洋最近的TC季节，建立一个用于PREDICT的指示区域首选成因路径的诊断参数，并根据成因路径确定哪些成因参数对TC发育是重要的；（iii）在预测之前和期间对TC发生/无效事件进行详细的诊断分析，以确定发生途径依赖的控制物理关系；（iv）使用集成卡尔曼滤波（EnKF）技术创建成因路径复合分析集成，以突出路径依赖的环境特征和动态重要特征和关系；(v)在PREDICT期间对原型TC事件进行高分辨率建模研究，以评估依赖路径的模型敏感性。在智力价值标准方面，本研究将通过分离个体发生途径中控制TC发展的各种环境和动力因素，促进科学理解；建立适用于各个TC形成途径的控制动力学和热力学过程；并增加我们对控制TC可预测性和不同发生途径的错误增长的物理机制的理解。就更广泛的影响标准而言，科学认识方面的预期进展将转化为对北半球TC成因的改进的中期和短期预报；为本项目拟资助的2名研究生的专业研究训练和深造作出贡献；丰富和提高中国气象局及其同事在天气动力和热带气象学领域的教学和学术水平。

This award is funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-5).This project will use the opportunity afforded by the PRE-Depression Investigation of Cloud-systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) field experiment, currently planned for August and September 2010, to investigate the pre-genesis and genesis of North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs). The proposed work is motivated by previous research that identified six distinct objectively defined North Atlantic TC genesis pathways. A distinctive aspect of the proposed research is that TC genesis/null events will be stratified by the six previously identified genesis pathways and analyzed over several complete TC seasons to facilitate uncovering distinctive pathway-dependent dynamical signatures.The project tasks will be: (i) construct a TC climatology over recent North Atlantic TC seasons (not justTC cases since null events are important and will outnumber TC developments) for each of the identified six genesis pathways;(ii) develop a diagnostic parameter indicating the preferred genesis pathway in a region from analysis of recent North Atlantic TC seasons for use during PREDICT and establish which genesis parameters are important for TC development depending on genesis path;(iii) perform detailed diagnostic analyses of TC genesis/null events prior to and during PREDICT to identify genesis pathway-dependent governing physical relationships;(iv) create genesis pathway composite analysis ensembles using ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) techniques to highlight pathway-dependent environmental signatures and dynamically important features and relationships; and (v) conduct high-resolution modeling studies of archetype TC events during PREDICT to evaluate pathway-dependent model sensitivity.With respect to the intellectual-merit criterion, the research will advance scientific understanding by isolating the various environmental and dynamical factors that control TC development along individual genesis pathways; establishing the governing dynamical and thermodynamical processes applicable to the individual TC genesis pathways; and increasing our understanding of the physical mechanisms that control TC predictability and error growth along different genesis pathways.With respect to the broader impact criterion, the anticipated advances in scientific understanding will translate into improved medium- and short-range forecasts of TC genesis over the North; contribute to the specialized research training and advanced education of the two graduate students to be supported by this project; and enrich and enhance the teaching and scholarship of the PI and his colleagues in the areas of synoptic-dynamic and tropical meteorology.