Sensitivity Analysis of Multidimensional Air Qualtiy Models Development and Application of a Direct Technique to the Mexico-Southwestern United States Border Region

多维空气质量模型的敏感性分析 直接技术在墨西哥-美国西南部边境地区的开发和应用

• 批准号: 9613729
• 负责人: Armistead Russell
• 金额: $ 9.5万
• 依托单位: Georgia Tech Research Corporation
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1997
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1997-07-01 至 2000-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9613729&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Sensitivity; Analysis; Multidimensional; Air; Qualtiy

9613729 Russell The major focus of this proposal is to develop a computationally effective sensitivity analysis technique for use in multidimensional air quality models, and to apply that technique to the border region between the US and Mexico. As part of that application, the research will quantify source impacts and develop sensitivity coefficients for various model parameters (e.g. deposition velocities and chemical rate constants). Because of its climate and rapid growth and industrialization, the Mexico-southwestern United States border area experiences elevated levels of ozone exceeding the national standards of the two countries. Addressing this air quality problem in the region is of particular interest for several reasons: first, the international nature of the problem, and the expected trans boundary pollutant flow, along with recent trade agreements (e.g. NAFTA and Maquiladoras); second, the high population growth in the area; and, third, the level of controls which differ widely between the various regions. If one can adequately demonstrate the source-air quality relationships through the application of sensitivity analysis, it is possible to develop much more cost effective integrated strategies for air pollution control in the region. It is proposed to develop a computationally attractive sensitivity analysis technique for use in multidimensional air quality models based on the direct decoupled sensitivity method. The resulting method will be designed and constructed in such a way as to be easily transportable between air quality models that are in common application today, and are being developed for future use. Furthermore, the system will make use of parallel computing environments. The method will be applied to air quality modeling along the Mexico-southwestem U.S. border to better understand pollutant dynamics in that region, and to quantify the model responses to inputs and model parameters. Finally, as an example of the power and uses of such techniques, the method will be applied to address three specific issues of importance in air quality engineering of interest in that region: explore the use of formal sensitivity analysis for model evaluation and intercomparison, quantify how ozone concentrations respond to emissions of various compounds and sources, and to further explore the use of sensitivity analysis in studying volatile organic compound (VOC) reactivity scales. The expected results from this project are: development of a computationally efficient sensitivity method for air quality modeling; application of the sensitivity analysis method along the Mexico-U.S. border to better understand the dynamics of air pollutants in that region, assessment of model sensitivities and uncertainties in the application along the border region, and a growing relationship between Georgia Tech and Instituto Technologico Estudios Superiores de Monterrey (ITESM) due both to the direct collaboration between the two principal investigators, but also due to the advanced education of a Mexican student (from ITESM) at Georgia Tech.

9613729罗素 主要 该提案的重点是发展 一个计算有效的灵敏度分析技术，用于多维空气质量模型，并将该技术应用于美国和墨西哥之间的边境地区。 作为这一应用的一部分，研究将量化源的影响，并为各种模型参数（例如沉积速度和化学速率常数）制定敏感系数。由于其气候和快速增长和工业化，墨西哥-美国西南部边境地区的臭氧水平超过了两国的国家标准。 解决该地区的空气质量问题尤其重要， 兴趣有几个原因： 第一， 这一问题的国际性质，以及随着最近的贸易协定（如北美自由贸易协定和边境加工业），预计污染物将沿着跨界流动;第二，该地区人口的高增长;第三，各区域之间的控制水平差异很大。 如果能够通过敏感性分析的应用充分展示污染源与空气质量之间的关系，就有可能为该地区的空气污染控制制定更具成本效益的综合战略。 基于直接解耦灵敏度方法，提出了一种适用于多维空气质量模式的灵敏度分析方法。 的 将设计结果方法 并且以这样的方式构造，使得能够容易地在当今普遍应用的空气质量模型之间传输，并且正在开发用于未来使用。 此外，该系统将利用并行计算环境。 该方法将被应用于空气质量建模沿着墨西哥西南部 美国边境 到 更好 了解该区域的污染物动态，并量化模型对输入和模型参数的响应。 最后，作为这种技术的力量和用途的一个例子，该方法将被应用于解决三个具体问题 在该地区感兴趣的空气质量工程中具有重要意义：探索使用正式的敏感性分析进行模型评估和相互比较，量化臭氧浓度如何对各种化合物和来源的排放作出反应，并进一步探索敏感性分析的使用 在研究挥发性有机化合物时 (VOC)反应性标度 该项目的预期结果是：发展一种计算效率高的空气质量模型灵敏度方法;在墨西哥-美国边界沿着应用敏感性分析方法，以更好地了解该区域空气污染物的动态，评估模型敏感性和在边界区域沿着应用的不确定性，以及格鲁吉亚理工学院和蒙特雷技术研究所（ITESM）之间日益密切的关系，这既是由于两个主要研究者之间的直接合作，也是由于一名墨西哥学生（来自ITESM）在格鲁吉亚理工学院的高等教育。