Using biogeographical niche models to predict plant species responses to climate change in interaction with land use

点击翻译按钮获取中文摘要

Although it is commonly accepted that the distribution ranges of most plant species will shift with climate change, it is completely unknown how the species will respond to the interaction of climate change with land use and of climate change with biotic interactions, such as herbivory and competition. As the biodiversity exploratories include a large variety of land use types at three sites with differing climate they offer the unique opportunity to address this topic. This project aims at testing the hypothesis that the local establishment potential and performance can be predicted from a species’ realized niche. We will construct models of the species’ fundamental niches and realized niches at different spatial scales, based on experiments in controlled environments, on an extensive experiment in the exploratories and on floristic mapping data. We will make full use of most available land use types both in grasslands and forests at all three exploratory sites and transplant raised plants of 20 different genera, each with 2 congeneric species of contrasting range types. All species will receive additional subplot treatments by manipulating aboveground competition and mollusc herbivory as well as raising temperature and reducing precipitation. A biogeographical experiment of this size is unique and will greatly increase our knowledge of how plant species, and in consequence, plant diversity will respond to climate change in interaction with changes in land use.