Using biogeographical niche models to predict plant species responses to climate change in interaction with land use

虽然人们普遍认为，大多数植物物种的分布范围将随着气候变化而变化，但物种将如何应对气候变化与土地利用的相互作用以及气候变化与生物相互作用的相互作用，如草食动物和竞争，这是完全未知的。由于生物多样性考察站包括气候不同的三个地点的各种土地利用类型，它们为解决这一问题提供了独特的机会。本研究旨在验证一个假设，即一个物种的本地建立潜力和性能可以从一个物种的实现生态位预测。我们将构建模型的物种的基本生态位和实现生态位在不同的空间尺度上，在受控环境中的实验，在一个广泛的实验中的exploratories和植物区系制图数据的基础上。我们将充分利用所有三个勘探点的草地和森林中最可用的土地利用类型，并移植20个不同属的人工种植植物，每个属有2个不同范围类型的同类物种。所有物种都将通过操纵地上竞争和软体动物食草以及提高温度和减少降水来接受额外的子区处理。这种规模的地理学实验是独一无二的，将大大增加我们对植物物种的了解，从而增加植物多样性将如何应对气候变化与土地利用变化的相互作用。

Although it is commonly accepted that the distribution ranges of most plant species will shift with climate change, it is completely unknown how the species will respond to the interaction of climate change with land use and of climate change with biotic interactions, such as herbivory and competition. As the biodiversity exploratories include a large variety of land use types at three sites with differing climate they offer the unique opportunity to address this topic. This project aims at testing the hypothesis that the local establishment potential and performance can be predicted from a species’ realized niche. We will construct models of the species’ fundamental niches and realized niches at different spatial scales, based on experiments in controlled environments, on an extensive experiment in the exploratories and on floristic mapping data. We will make full use of most available land use types both in grasslands and forests at all three exploratory sites and transplant raised plants of 20 different genera, each with 2 congeneric species of contrasting range types. All species will receive additional subplot treatments by manipulating aboveground competition and mollusc herbivory as well as raising temperature and reducing precipitation. A biogeographical experiment of this size is unique and will greatly increase our knowledge of how plant species, and in consequence, plant diversity will respond to climate change in interaction with changes in land use.