Topics in Macroeconomics

9618303 Eichenbaum这项研究试图了解战后美国数据中产出和通胀的波动在多大程度上是由于货币政策是在自由裁量的情况下进行的。这个问题是通过开发和分析一类动态的、定量的、一般均衡模型来解决的，在这些模型中，货币政策是由寻求实现明确目标的政策制定者制定的。这些模型被用来确定在替代制度安排下货币政策的实施是否会更好。这项研究的动机是各种实证和政策问题，其中一些问题从传统理论的角度来看似乎令人费解。这些问题的例子有：(1)像我们在1980年代的《S》中看到的那样的大通胀是自由裁量货币政策不可避免的副产品吗？(2)自由裁量权是否会导致过度微调，即太多的“逆风而行”？(3)如果对货币当局施加有限形式的承诺，会带来什么福利收益？(4)将权力下放给央行行长是否必然会带来反复的、高风险的斗争，以降低通胀？(5)基于授权的理论是否有助于解释战后美国货币政策发生政权更迭的证据？任何货币政策分析的说服力，关键取决于模型的可信程度。该项目构建、估计和评估替代经济周期模型的经验可信性。这项研究旨在隔离代理人环境中的摩擦，这些摩擦有助于从数量上解释货币政策的收缩冲击导致总价格水平和实际工资的小幅波动、产出和利润的持续下降以及短期利率显著上升的事实。该项目评估了资产市场、良好市场和劳动力市场摩擦在货币传导机制中的重要性。在相关工作中，项目旨在了解产能利用率的周期性行为。这项工作之所以重要，是因为货币传导机制的经验模型必须包含抑制生产成本周期性变动的摩擦。该项目使用商业周期模型来面对微观经济数据，这些模型允许公司之间存在不平凡的技术异质性。最后，该项目旨在利用微观经济数据估计规模回报和外部性的大小。这项工作之所以重要，是因为一大类理论依赖于规模收益递增和/或外部性作为一种传播机制，或者自我实现的预期冲击是商业周期的重要推动力来源。?？

9618303 Eichenbaum This research seeks to understand the extent to which fluctuations in output and inflation in post-war US data are due to the fact that monetary policy is conducted under discretion. This issue is addressed by developing and analyzing a class of dynamic, quantitative, general equilibrium models in which monetary policy is made by policymakers seeking to achieve well-defined objectives. These models are used to determine whether the conduct of monetary policy would have been better under alternative institutional arrangements. This research is motivated by a variety of empirical and policy questions, some of which appear to be puzzling from the perspective of conventional theories. Example of these questions are: (1) Are Great Inflations like we saw in the 1980's an inevitable by-product of discretionary monetary policy? (2) Does discretion lead to excessive fine tuning, that is, too much "leaning against the wind?" (3) What are the welfare gains, if any from imposing limited forms of commitment on the monetary authority? (4) Does delegating authority to a central banker necessarily entail repeated and risky battles to reduce inflation? (5) Do theories based on delegation help account for the evidence of regime switches in postwar US monetary policy? The persuasiveness of any analysis of monetary policy depends crucially on the plausibility of the model. The project constructs, estimates and evaluates the empirical plausibility of alternative business cycle models. The research is aimed at isolating frictions in agents' environments that help account quantitatively for the fact that contractionary shocks to monetary policy lead to small movements in the aggregate price level and real wages, svbustantial declines in output and profits, and a significant rise in short term interest rates. The project evaluates the importance of asset market, good market and labor market frictions in the monetary transmission mechanism. In related work, the projects aims at understanding the cyclical behavior of capacity utilization rates. This work is important because empirically plausible models of the monetary transmission mechanism must embody frictions that damp cyclical movements in the costs of production. The project confronts microeconomic data with business cycle models that allow for nontrivial technological heterogeneity across firms. Finally, the project aims at estimating the magnitude of returns to scale and externalities using microeconomic data. This work is important because a broad class of theories relies on increasing returns to scale and/or externalities as a propagation mechanism or for self fulfilling expectations shocks to be an important source of impulses to the business cycle. ??