Topics in Macroeconomics

小行星9618303 本研究旨在了解战后美国数据中产出和通货膨胀的波动在多大程度上是由于货币政策是在自由裁量下实施的。 这个问题是通过开发和分析一类动态的，定量的，一般均衡模型，货币政策是由政策制定者寻求实现明确的目标来解决的。 这些模型被用来确定在替代制度安排下货币政策的实施是否会更好。 本研究的动机是各种各样的经验和政策问题，其中一些似乎是令人费解的传统理论的角度来看。 这些问题的例子是： (1)像我们在20世纪80年代看到的大通胀是自由裁量的货币政策不可避免的副产品吗？ (2)自由裁量权是否会导致过度微调，即过度“逆风而行”？“（3）向金融管理当局施加有限形式的承担，如有任何福利收益，会有甚么收益？ (4)将权力下放给中央银行家，是否必然意味着为降低通胀而进行反复而冒险的斗争？ (5)基于授权的理论是否有助于解释战后美国货币政策体制转换的证据？ 任何货币政策分析的说服力，关键取决于模型的可验证性。 该项目构建，估计和评估替代商业周期模型的经验可行性。 这项研究旨在隔离代理人环境中的摩擦，这些摩擦有助于定量地解释货币政策的收缩冲击导致总价格水平和真实的工资的小幅波动、产出和利润的大幅下降以及短期利率的大幅上升。 本项目评估了资产市场、商品市场和劳动力市场摩擦在货币传导机制中的重要性。 在相关工作中，项目旨在了解产能利用率的周期性行为。 这项工作很重要，因为货币传导机制的经验合理模型必须体现出抑制生产成本周期性波动的摩擦。 该项目面对的微观经济数据与商业周期模型，允许非平凡的技术异质性的公司。 最后，该项目旨在利用微观经济数据估计规模收益和外部性的大小。 这项工作是重要的，因为广泛的一类理论依赖于规模和/或外部性作为传播机制或自我实现的预期冲击是一个重要来源的冲动，以商业周期的回报递增。 ??

9618303 Eichenbaum This research seeks to understand the extent to which fluctuations in output and inflation in post-war US data are due to the fact that monetary policy is conducted under discretion. This issue is addressed by developing and analyzing a class of dynamic, quantitative, general equilibrium models in which monetary policy is made by policymakers seeking to achieve well-defined objectives. These models are used to determine whether the conduct of monetary policy would have been better under alternative institutional arrangements. This research is motivated by a variety of empirical and policy questions, some of which appear to be puzzling from the perspective of conventional theories. Example of these questions are: (1) Are Great Inflations like we saw in the 1980's an inevitable by-product of discretionary monetary policy? (2) Does discretion lead to excessive fine tuning, that is, too much "leaning against the wind?" (3) What are the welfare gains, if any from imposing limited forms of commitment on the monetary authority? (4) Does delegating authority to a central banker necessarily entail repeated and risky battles to reduce inflation? (5) Do theories based on delegation help account for the evidence of regime switches in postwar US monetary policy? The persuasiveness of any analysis of monetary policy depends crucially on the plausibility of the model. The project constructs, estimates and evaluates the empirical plausibility of alternative business cycle models. The research is aimed at isolating frictions in agents' environments that help account quantitatively for the fact that contractionary shocks to monetary policy lead to small movements in the aggregate price level and real wages, svbustantial declines in output and profits, and a significant rise in short term interest rates. The project evaluates the importance of asset market, good market and labor market frictions in the monetary transmission mechanism. In related work, the projects aims at understanding the cyclical behavior of capacity utilization rates. This work is important because empirically plausible models of the monetary transmission mechanism must embody frictions that damp cyclical movements in the costs of production. The project confronts microeconomic data with business cycle models that allow for nontrivial technological heterogeneity across firms. Finally, the project aims at estimating the magnitude of returns to scale and externalities using microeconomic data. This work is important because a broad class of theories relies on increasing returns to scale and/or externalities as a propagation mechanism or for self fulfilling expectations shocks to be an important source of impulses to the business cycle. ??