Topics in Business Cycle Analysis

经济周期分析主题

• 批准号: 9122490
• 负责人: Martin Eichenbaum
• 金额: $ 10.87万
• 依托单位: Northwestern University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1992
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1992-04-15 至 1995-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9122490&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Topics; Business; Cycle; Analysis

This project addresses two major inconsistencies between modern macroeconomic theories of business cycles and the empirical evidence. Positive shocks in the money supply depress both real and nominal interest rates, at least in the short run. Standard general equilibrium theory, with its emphasis on the alleged role of "sticky" nominal wages and prices in explaining the expansionary effects of monetary policy, would predict the opposite relationship. This project determines whether or not the explanation for this first inconsistency lies in an alternative (possibly complementary) channel, one which emphasizes the role of working capital in the production process and the liquidity effects of changes in the money supply. The second inconsistency is the phenomenon of procyclical productivity. Productivity tends to fall in downturns and rise in upturns. This seems to contradict neoclassical theories of business cycles because changes in aggregate output should conform to the law of diminishing marginal productivity, i.e., as the percentage of the labor force employed declines (increases), the productivity of the marginal worker should increase (decrease). This project determines whether or not procyclical productivity is due to the effect of labor hoarding and changes in capacity utilization. The project should provide new insights into the role of monetary policy as an impulse to postwar US business cycles. Specifically, it will improve our understanding of the role of liquidity effects as central components of the monetary transmission mechanism. The project analyzes the impact of monetary policy on financial markets and the observed dynamic co- movements between short term interest rates, output and the money supply. The project also improves our understanding of the dynamic co-movements between average productivity, hours worked and output. In this research the focus is on the role which labor hoarding and time varying capacity capital utilization rates play in generating the observed procyclicality of labor productivity and the Solow residual. This in turn leads to an investigation of how these phenomena impact on existing estimates of the role of technology shocks in generating economic fluctuations.

这个项目解决了现代之间的两个主要矛盾 经济周期的宏观经济理论和经验经济理论 证据 货币供应的正面冲击压低了真实的和 以及名义利率，至少在短期内是这样。 标准 一般均衡理论，强调所谓的作用 “粘性”名义工资和价格的解释， 货币政策的扩张效应，将预测 相反的关系。 这个项目决定了 对第一个不一致的解释是， 替代（可能是互补的）渠道， 强调营运资本在生产过程中的作用 以及货币供应量变化的流动性效应。 的 第二个矛盾是顺周期现象 生产力 生产率在经济低迷时往往会下降， 在上升。 这似乎与新古典主义的 因为总产出的变化应该 符合边际生产率递减规律，即，作为 就业劳动力的百分比下降（增加）， 边际工人的生产率应该会提高 （减少）。 这个项目决定是否顺周期 生产率是由于劳动力囤积和变化的影响 能力利用率。 该项目将为货币政策的作用提供新的见解。 政策作为战后美国商业周期的推动力。 具体而言，它将提高我们对 流动性效应作为货币政策的核心组成部分 传动机构 该项目分析了 货币政策对金融市场的影响，以及所观察到的动态协同效应， 短期利率、产出和货币之间的变动 供应 该项目还提高了我们对 平均生产率、工作时间和 和输出。 在这项研究中，重点是作用， 劳动力囤积与时变能力资本利用 利率在产生劳动力的顺周期性方面发挥作用 生产率和索洛余值。 这反过来又导致了一个 调查这些现象如何影响现有估计数 技术冲击在促进经济增长和 波动