CAREER: New Methods for Systems Analysis of Environmental Technologies

9701502 Frey这项研究计划有几个主要活动：(1)开发详细的清洁技术工程经济模型，以了解过程性能、排放和成本之间的权衡；(2)开发新的方法，对环境技术中的不确定性和可变性进行量化分析；(3)将概率分析与优化能力相结合，以产生在面临不确定性的情况下优化技术的途径；(4)详细的案例研究，以说明系统模型的使用以及概率和优化方法的好处。详细的案例研究将集中在选定的创新气化技术上。这些技术为低环境排放、废物利用和化石燃料的高效利用提供了希望。例如，煤气化技术在流程优化、不确定性分析和污染预防方面是一个丰富的研究领域，因为可能的流程配置范围很广。这些技术正在成为下一代燃煤发电的首选替代方案，美国和欧洲有近12家示范电厂正在建设中。由于未能严格量化新技术的风险，估计其性能、排放和成本的传统方法一直具有误导性，使决策者面临不必要的成本和风险。目前在煤气化技术开发上花费的数十亿美元，应该针对那些能够提供最大减排潜力和有利成本的系统。因此，迫切需要对这些技术进行系统建模。将考虑将这一方法推广到其他类型技术评价的机会，作为协作工作的一部分。该教育计划将包括空气污染控制、空气质量工程、系统工程和相关主题的模块化教学材料的开发。这些模块将适用于交通工程、化学工程和纺织等课程。模块化材料可以通过前后测试进行系统评估和有针对性的改进。模块化材料还将促进远程学习课程的提供。编写教材的一个主要重点将是开发主要排放源的多媒体教学计算机模型，将研究成果转移到课堂上。这些模型将使学生能够探索模型预测对不同的机械假设的敏感性，这些假设涉及质量和能量平衡、化学平衡、化学动力学和估计污染物形成和控制的经验方法，并处理模型结构和输入参数的不确定性。***

9701502 Frey This research program features several major activities: (1) the development of detailed engineering-economic models of clean technologies for the purpose of understanding trade-offs among process performance, emissions and cost; (2) the development of new methods for quantitative analysis of uncertainty and variability in environmental technologies; (3) the combination of probabilistic analysis with optimization capabilities to yield approaches for optimizing technologies in the face of uncertainties; and (4) detailed case studies to illustrate the use of systems models and the benefits of the probabilistic and optimization methodologies. The detailed case studies will focus on selected innovative gasification technologies. These technologies offer promise for low environmental discharges, waste utilization, and efficient use of fossil fuels. For example, coal gasification technologies represent a rich area of study regarding process optimization, uncertainty analysis, and pollution prevention because of the wide range of possible process configurations. These technologies are emerging as the preferred alternative for the next generation of coal-based power generation, with nearly a dozen demonstration plants underway in the U.S. and Europe. By failing to rigorously quantify the risks of new technology, traditional approaches to estimating their performance, emissions, and cost have been misleading, exposing decision makers to unnecessary costs and risks. The billions of dollars now being spent on the development of coal gasification technologies should be targeted to those systems that offer the greatest potential for emissions reduction and favorable costs. Therefore, there is a critical need for systems modeling of these technologies. Opportunities to extend the methodology to evaluation of other types of technologies will be considered as part of collaborative work. The educational program will include the development of modular inst ructional materials in air pollution control, air quality engineering, systems engineering, and related topics. These modules will be adaptable for use in courses in transportation engineering, chemical engineering, and textiles. Modular materials are amenable to systematic evaluation and targeted refinement through pre- and post-testing. Modular materials will also facilitate distance-learning course offerings. A key focus in the development of instructional materials will be the development of multi-media pedagogical computer models of major emission sources that transfer the research results into the classroom. Such models will enable students to explore the sensitivity of model predictions to different mechanistic assumptions regarding mass and energy balances, chemical equilibrium, chemical kinetics, and empirical approaches to estimating pollutant formation and control, and to deal with uncertainty in model structure and input parameters. ***