Multiple Tiered Methodology for Micro- to Macro-Scale Assessment of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles (M4-PHEVs)

0853766 FreyThe PI计划开发M4-PHEV，这是一种新的多层次方法，用于插电式混合动力电动汽车（PHEV）直接和间接能源使用和排放（EU E）的微观到宏观评估。这一框架将能够利用一致的数据和协调的方法，在高空间和时间分辨率以及区域和国家尺度上准确评估插电式混合动力电动汽车的能源使用和排放。欧盟E影响将考虑化石燃料（汽油、柴油）、生物燃料（乙醇、生物柴油）和电力的消费。主要目标是：（1）开发和演示一种新的多尺度建模方法框架，将传感器数据与微尺度模型联系起来，将微尺度输出与能源系统模型输入联系起来;（2）以高空间和时间分辨率创建PHEV能源使用和排放的微尺度模型，并明确考虑四种车辆燃料：汽油，柴油，乙醇和生物柴油;以及（3）使用MARKAL能源系统模型，在美国市场渗透情景下，提供插电式混合动力汽车能源使用和排放的可靠、定量表征。他们将开发一种新的方法，用于使用便携式排放测量系统（PEMS）对PHEV的实时现场数据收集和分析。他们将量化车辆能源消耗如何在发动机和电池系统之间波动，作为外部可观察因素的函数，如道路类型，速度，加速度，道路坡度和环境条件。将推导出PHEV燃料和电力使用的详细模型。这些模型将在时间和空间上分配能源使用和尾气排放。我们将考虑电荷耗尽和电荷维持模式。我们将建立在我们最近的工作，使用PEMS来量化生物柴油与石油柴油，以及乙醇与汽油的影响，以评估生物燃料PHEV。微尺度模型将使PHEV与先前开发的传统车辆微尺度模型进行比较，以量化PHEV在特定现实条件下的边际影响。宏观尺度方法将采用MARKet ALlocation（MARKAL）能源系统模型，以美国9个地区为代表，以评估插电式混合动力汽车对电力和燃料的需求如何影响车辆和发电技术的选择，整个经济的最终用电需求，资源利用和区域排放。他们将通过5点传播计划与学生、公众、从业者、决策者、国际合作者和研究人员分享这项工作的成果，以实现这项工作的更广泛影响。这项工作的主要假设是：（a）定量地考虑插电式电动汽车的车辆特定的微观尺度的影响，使能源使用和排放模型的发展具有更高的准确性和精度;（B）这些模型可以汇总，以发展准确和精确的估计欧盟&E车队和更长的时间尺度;以及（c）多尺度的建模框架不仅能够量化一个PHEV代替一个传统车辆的边际效应，但对资源利用和能源结构的二次转变的全系统影响，包括PHEV使用生物燃料与化石燃料的影响。与传统车辆相比，插电式混合动力汽车将以不同的方式使用能源，并间歇性地排放尾气。它们的大规模部署将导致运输和发电能源部门的复杂耦合。此外，插电式混合动力汽车直接和间接排放的时间和位置对于准确量化局部空气质量影响至关重要。该项目将提供新的方法和数据：（a）更精确地估计微尺度车辆特定的欧盟E，以支持改进排放清单的开发;（B）在不同的时间和空间尺度上估计欧盟E的一致框架的开发;（c）使交通改善计划（TIPs）的评估基础得到改善;（d）实时估计和管理欧盟E的基础得到改善。这项工作将影响参与研究的本科生和研究生，并将通过详细的传播计划与公众，从业者和其他人分享。

0853766FreyThe PI plans to develop M4-PHEV, a new Multiple-tiered Methodology for Micro- to Macro-scale assessment of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) direct and indirect energy use and emissions (EU&E). This framework will enable accurate assessment of the energy use and emissions of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) at high spatial and temporal resolution, as well as at regional and national scales, using consistent data and coordinated approaches. The EU&E impacts will account for consumption of fossil fuels (gasoline, diesel), biofuels (ethanol, biodiesel), and electricity. The main objectives are to: (1) develop and demonstrate a new methodological framework for multi-scale modeling that links sensor data to micro-scale models, and micro-scale outputs to energy system model inputs; (2) create micro-scale models of PHEV energy use and emissions at high spatial and temporal resolution with explicit consideration of four vehicle fuels: gasoline, diesel, ethanol, and biodiesel; and (3) use the MARKAL energy systems model to provide a robust, quantitative characterization of PHEV energy use and emissions under U.S. market penetration scenarios. They will develop a new methodology for real-world field data collection and analysis of second-by-second activity, energy use, and emissions of PHEVs using portable emission measurement systems (PEMS). They will quantify how vehicle energy consumption fluctuates between the engine and battery systems as a function of externally-observable factors such as roadway type, speed, acceleration, road grade, and ambient conditions. Detailed models of PHEV fuel and electricity use will be derived. The models will allocate energy use and tailpipe emissions in time and space. We will account for charge depleting and charge sustaining modes. We will build upon our recent work, using PEMS to quantify the effect of biodiesel versus petroleum diesel, as well as ethanol versus gasoline, to assess biofueled-PHEVs. The microscale models will enable comparison of PHEVs with previously developed microscale models for conventional vehicles in order to quantify the marginal impact of PHEVs under specific real-world conditions. The macro-scale approach will feature the use of a MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) energy systems model with a 9-region representation of the U.S. in order to assess how the demand for electricity and fuels by PHEVs affects choices among vehicle and power generation technologies, end-use electricity demand across the economy, resource utilization, and regional emissions. They will share results of this work, via a 5-point dissemination plan, with students, the public, practitioners, decision-makers, international collaborators, and researchers to enable realization of the broader impacts of this work. The key hypotheses of this work are: (a) quantitatively accounting for vehicle-specific micro-scale impacts of PHEVs enables development of energy use and emissions models with improved accuracy and precision; (b) such models can be aggregated to develop accurate and precise estimates of EU&E for vehicle fleets and longer time scales; and (c) a modeling framework at multiple scales enables quantification of not only the marginal effects of one PHEV in place of one conventional vehicle, but the system-wide implications for resource utilization and secondary shifts in energy mix, including the impacts of PHEV use of biofuels versus fossil fuels. PHEVs will use energy differently and emit tailpipe emissions intermittently compared to conventional vehicles. Their wide-scale deployment will lead to the complex coupling of the transportation and power generation energy sectors. In addition, the timing and location of direct and indirect emissions from PHEVs is critical to the accurate quantification of localized air quality impacts. This project will provide new methods and data for: (a) more precise estimates of micro-scale vehicle-specific EU&E to support improved emission inventory development; (b) development of a consistent framework for estimating EU&E at different temporal and spatial scales; (c) enabling an improved basis for evaluation of transportation improvement programs (TIPs) and (d) an improved basis for real-time estimation and management of EU&E. This work will impact undergraduate and graduate students who participate in the research, and will be shared with the public, practitioners, and others via a detailed dissemination plan.