Modeling the Effects of Leads Upon the Atmosphere and the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean

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ABSTRACT OPP-9702583 KRUEGER, STEVEN UNIVERSITY OF UTAH This research project is a key component of a large, coordinated, multi-investigator program, Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic (SHEBA) Ocean. The research program will be conducted for 14 months from a ship frozen into the ice pack. This investigator will develop a model of the effects of leads in the sea ice on atmospheric conditions above the permanent ice cap of the Arctic Ocean. The data used to validate the model will be collected from a scientifically instrumented aircraft during the Spring and Fall in conjunction with a DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement research program jointly conducted at the site. These researchers will determine the flux of incoming heat radiating onto the ice floe as a function of changing cloud conditions as well as the effect of open water among the ice on the cloud conditions. Their results will help determine how atmospheric heating is coupled to adsorption of heat by the sea ice. These measurements are critical to understanding how heat is reflected or absorbed by the ice as it melts in the summer and thickens in the winter in response to seasonal variations in climate. The modeling program makes an essential contribution to the SHEBA team of researchers who will measure atmospheric variables with a large array of instruments on the ice floe and aircraft flying above as well as ice and ocean property measurements made on and below the ice floe. The combined set of measurements in SHEBA will allow refinement of climate models for the Arctic region. Those improved models will lead to better predictions of the climate and the permanence of the Arctic ice cap under a proposed global warming that could occur if atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are increased above present levels.