Advanced Integrated Science Modeling Capability for Integrated Assessment Studies

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9711624 Wuebbles The objective of this research is to develop advanced modeling capabilities for the natural science modules to better meet the needs of future integrated assessment studies. The model will be designed to better represent spatial variations and to improve the treatment of processes relevant towards evaluating the biogeochemical cycles important to determining atmospheric composition and resulting climatic effects at the regional scale. By extending the process level understanding of regional impacts into the Integrated Assessment (IA) model, the work proposed here will substantially improve the understanding of climate change impacts and extend the range of issues, which can be addressed in an IA framework. For specific applications, this effort includes the appropriate connections with a state-of-the-art energy/economics model. The model will be applied to a selected set of studies to address policy related questions on climate change; in particular the role of agriculture, forestry, and land-use for future greenhouse gas emissions and their implications on future climate. Although the primary focus of this model development will continue to be on the natural sciences, a much more powerful tool for fully integrated assessment will be achieved through a close interaction with the ongoing state-of-the-art modeling of economic, ecosystem, and social science processes. It will be an important aspect of this project that it will have a well designed modeling tool that can be used in a variety of ways for assessing the relationships between global change and the social sciences. In particular, this modeling tool will allow the exploration of human dimension of global change decision making and policy science in an integrated global and regional framework, while providing fast and efficient first approximation answers to pressing policy questions related to global change.