Collaborative Research: The Nature and Predictability of The Madden and Julian Oscillation in the Coupled Ocean- Atmosphere System

小行星9712855 该补助金是为加州大学圣巴巴拉分校的Charles Jones博士和纽约州立大学斯托尼布鲁克分校的Duane Waliser博士（根据ATM-9712483）之间的合作项目提供支持的两个奖项之一。 主要研究人员试图提高我们的理解，并最终提高我们的预测能力，一种被称为马登-朱利安振荡（MJO）的热带季节内现象。 Madden-Julian振荡是热带季节内变率最重要的模态之一，通过与西风爆发的密切联系，它可能对热带外大气的中长期天气预报、亚澳季风活动，甚至赤道太平洋温跃层结构的变率产生重要影响。 越来越多的证据，包括最近的主要研究人员获得的模拟结果表明，海气相互作用过程，特别是海表温度（SST）变化对表面通量的影响，可能是重要的MJO的维护。 主要研究人员将继续他们的调查，（1）进一步探索SST和表面过程在确定强度和维持MJO使用耦合海洋-大气模式的作用，（2）评估的代表性/预测MJO的整体业务中期天气预报模式的扩展范围预报技能的影响。 研究将涉及使用诊断和统计分析以及数值模拟。 PI将在其研究中使用几种不同的模型。 这项研究对改进季节内和季节时间尺度的动力扩展预报具有重要意义。 因此，气候动力学和大规模气象学计划将共同支持这一合作项目。

9712855 Jones This grant represents one of the two awards that provide support for a collaborative project between Dr. Charles Jones of UC - Santa Barbara and Dr. Duane Waliser at SUNY - Stony Brook (under ATM-9712483). The principal investigators seek to improve our understanding of, and ultimately our capability to forecast, a tropical intraseasonal phenomenon known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The Madden-Julian Oscillation is one of the most important modes of tropical intraseasonal variability that may have important influences on medium- to extended-range weather forecasting in the extratropics, the Asian-Australian monsoon activity, and even the variability of the equatorial Pacific Ocean thermocline structure via its close association with westerly wind bursts. A growing body of evidence, including recent modeling results obtained by the principal investigators, suggests that air-sea interaction processes, particularly the influence of sea-surface temperature (SST) variations on surface fluxes, may be important in the maintenance of the MJO. The principal investigators will continue their investigation by (1) further exploring the role of SST and surface processes in determining the strength of and maintaining the MJO using coupled ocean-atmosphere models and (2) assessing the impact of the representation/forecast of the MJO on the overall extended range forecast skill in an operational medium-range weather forecast model. The research will involve the use of diagnostic and statistical analyses as well as numerical simulations. The PIs will employ several different models in their study. This research has important implications for improving dynamical extended range forecasting at both intraseasonal and seasonal time scales. Therefore, both the Climate Dynamics and Large-scale Meteorology Programs will share in the support of this collaborative project.