Collaborative Research: The Nature and Predictability of The Madden and Julian Oscillation in the Coupled Ocean- Atmosphere System

9712855琼斯这笔赠款是为加州大学圣巴巴拉分校的查尔斯·琼斯博士和纽约州立大学石溪分校的杜恩·瓦利泽博士(在ATM-9712483下)之间的合作项目提供支持的两个奖项之一。首席研究人员试图提高我们对热带季节内现象马登-朱利安振荡(MJO)的理解，并最终提高我们预测这一现象的能力。Madden-Julian涛动是热带季节内变化的重要模式之一，它与西风暴发密切相关，可能对温带外中长期天气预报、亚澳季风活动乃至赤道太平洋温跃层结构的变化产生重要影响。越来越多的证据，包括主要研究人员最近获得的模拟结果表明，海-气相互作用过程，特别是海-表面温度变化对表面通量的影响，可能对维持MJO很重要。主要调查人员将继续调查：(1)利用海洋-大气耦合模式，进一步探讨SST和地面过程在确定MJO强度和维持MJO方面的作用，以及(2)评估MJO的表示/预报对业务中期天气预报模式中整体扩展范围预报技能的影响。这项研究将涉及使用诊断和统计分析以及数值模拟。私人投资公司将在他们的研究中采用几种不同的模型。这项研究对改进季节内和季节时间尺度上的动态扩展范围预报具有重要意义。因此，气候动力学和大型气象项目都将共同支持这一合作项目。

9712855 Jones This grant represents one of the two awards that provide support for a collaborative project between Dr. Charles Jones of UC - Santa Barbara and Dr. Duane Waliser at SUNY - Stony Brook (under ATM-9712483). The principal investigators seek to improve our understanding of, and ultimately our capability to forecast, a tropical intraseasonal phenomenon known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The Madden-Julian Oscillation is one of the most important modes of tropical intraseasonal variability that may have important influences on medium- to extended-range weather forecasting in the extratropics, the Asian-Australian monsoon activity, and even the variability of the equatorial Pacific Ocean thermocline structure via its close association with westerly wind bursts. A growing body of evidence, including recent modeling results obtained by the principal investigators, suggests that air-sea interaction processes, particularly the influence of sea-surface temperature (SST) variations on surface fluxes, may be important in the maintenance of the MJO. The principal investigators will continue their investigation by (1) further exploring the role of SST and surface processes in determining the strength of and maintaining the MJO using coupled ocean-atmosphere models and (2) assessing the impact of the representation/forecast of the MJO on the overall extended range forecast skill in an operational medium-range weather forecast model. The research will involve the use of diagnostic and statistical analyses as well as numerical simulations. The PIs will employ several different models in their study. This research has important implications for improving dynamical extended range forecasting at both intraseasonal and seasonal time scales. Therefore, both the Climate Dynamics and Large-scale Meteorology Programs will share in the support of this collaborative project.