The Madden-Julian Oscillation and Predictability of Extreme Precipitation in the United States

美国极端降水的马登-朱利安振荡和可预测性

• 批准号: 1053294
• 负责人: Charles Jones
• 金额: $ 46.63万
• 依托单位: University of California-Santa Barbara
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-07-15 至 2016-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1053294&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Madden; Julian; Oscillation; Predictability; Extreme

AbstractResearch under this grant examines changes in the predictability of extreme precipitation events (i.e. rainfall or snowfall exceeding the 90th percentile of the climatological distribution) associated with different phases of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The MJO is a large-scale precipitation and circulation anomaly which forms over the Indian Ocean and propagates slowly eastward to the central equatorial Pacific. Preliminary work by the PIs under their previous NSF grant shows that the skill of extreme precipitation forecasts over the continental US (CONUS) for week one and week two of the forecast varies over the course of the MJO lifecycle, the portion of CONUS land area in which significant skill exists being largest in phases 1, 2, 7, and 8 of the MJO. Work under this grant explores the skill differences using hindcast integrations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model on a global domain. The work examines the skill of forecasts and also seeks to understand the dynamical mechanisms through which the phase and amplitude of the MJO affect the skill of extreme precipitation forecasts.The research has broader impacts through the economic and social value of better long-range weather forecasts associated with MJO behavior. Preliminary work estimates the economic value of improvements in the skill of extreme precipitation forecasts in the above MJO phases, which is largest along the eastern seabord and in the midwest. In addition, the project supports a graduate student and postdoctoral researcher, thereby contributing to the development of the workforce in atmospheric science. The Principal Investigators for this award are also engaged in a number of outreach activities, including a six-week summer research program for high school students, and seminars conducted during National Geographic's Geography Awareness Week.

该基金的研究考察了与麦登-朱利安涛动（MJO）不同阶段相关的极端降水事件（即超过气候分布第90百分位数的降雨或降雪）的可预测性变化。MJO是一个在印度洋上空形成的大尺度降水和环流异常，并缓慢向东传播至赤道太平洋中部。在NSF之前的资助下，pi的初步工作表明，在MJO的整个生命周期中，预测第一周和第二周的美国大陆（CONUS）极端降水的预测能力有所不同，在MJO的第1、2、7和8阶段，CONUS陆地面积中存在显著技能的部分最大。这项资助下的工作是在全球范围内使用天气研究与预报（WRF）模型的后播集成来探索技能差异。这项工作检查了预报的技巧，也试图了解MJO的相位和振幅影响极端降水预报技巧的动力机制。该研究通过与MJO行为相关的更好的长期天气预报的经济和社会价值产生了更广泛的影响。初步工作估计了上述MJO阶段极端降水预报技术改进的经济价值，这种改进在东部沿海和中西部地区最大。此外，该项目还支持一名研究生和博士后研究人员，从而为大气科学劳动力的发展做出贡献。该奖项的主要研究人员还参与了一些外联活动，包括为期六周的高中生暑期研究计划，以及在国家地理地理意识周期间举办的研讨会。